Alt\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc hafif y\u00fckseldi ancak ge\u00e7en haftaki %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan $4.400 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle $4.450 seviyesine yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Hareket, ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekleyip k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi bask\u0131lamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda geldi. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin mesajlar vermesinin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; CME FedWatch Tool olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %36\u2019dan %61\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Enflasyonu %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik vurgular da \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre bekle\u201d (pause-for-longer) anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni jeopolitik gerilim savunmac\u0131 tonu art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Larak Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 vurdu; burada \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (IRGC) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na deniz may\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6\u015femek \u00fczere f\u00fcze haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edildi. Tahran ise \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019ndeki ABD hava \u00fcslerini hedef alarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc sert \u015fekilde d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve $4.528\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131na indi; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 54,36 olurken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgeye kayd\u0131. Destek seviyeleri $4.400, ard\u0131ndan $4.310 ve $4.225\u2019te; diren\u00e7 ise $4.528, $4.565 ve $4.700 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k $70 milyar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekleyerek, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor al\u0131ma imza att\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n $4.528\u2019deki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin %61\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve getiri \u00fcretmeyen alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip hale getirdi. Tarihsel olarak, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na benzer k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2022 sonundaki d\u00fczeltmeler) %10 veya daha fazla uzayan sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi Eyl\u00fcl sonuna ayarlanm\u0131\u015f \u201cstrike\u201d\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bir sonraki ana destekler olan $4.310 ve $4.225 seviyelerini k\u00e2r realizasyonu b\u00f6lgeleri olarak hedefleyebilir. Prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu alt hedeflere do\u011fru kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d kullan\u0131m\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a etkili bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte temkinli kalmak gerekiyor; ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ani askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar her an g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli (short) vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n, $4.528 direncinin hemen \u00fczerinde koruyucu al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. Bu dengeli strateji, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin bir anda t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarar riskine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcncel piyasa verileri, y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin de\u011ferli metallere bask\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; zira daha y\u00fcksek getiriler alt\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam ve enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; ekonomik g\u00fcce i\u015faret eden olas\u0131 sinyaller, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201ckilitleyebilir\u201d ve alt\u0131n\u0131 $4.300 hedefimize do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m: XAU\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, $4.450\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesiyle Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; jeopolitik gerilim dolar lehine. Destek $4.400-$4.225.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t