USD\/JPY, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 desteklemesinin ard\u0131ndan ilk kez 29 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken hisse senetlerinde momentum kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. T\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131nda eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %38\u2019den %60\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; CME vadeli i\u015flemleri ise 2026\u2019da iki federal fon faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki %21\u2019den %49\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Kurun 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine hamlesi, yen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci haftad\u0131r artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren pozisyonlanma verilerine ra\u011fmen ilk etapta kal\u0131c\u0131 olamad\u0131. Parite ayr\u0131ca toplam\u0131 rekor 98,7 milyar dolara ula\u015fan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilim, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Amerikan \u00fcslerine misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Brent\u2019i yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak enflasyon endi\u015felerini peki\u015ftirdi. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Washington\u2019\u0131n koordineli FX m\u00fcdahalesindeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc Kongre\u2019de ele al\u0131rken; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD tahvili sahibi olmas\u0131 ve d\u00fczensiz yen hareketlerinin ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131rma riski oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, vadeli piyasalarda BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Fed ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) kritik eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu haftalarda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in %80, Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in %60 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon primlerinin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemeldir. Y\u00f6n riskine girmek yerine, her iki y\u00f6ndeki sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY straddle veya strangle al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde yeni rekor olan 98,7 milyar dolarl\u0131k yen savunmas\u0131 buna benzer. \u00d6nceki b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde USD\/JPY bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite d\u00fczenli olarak %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak opsiyon al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in son derece k\u00e2rl\u0131 ortamlar yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eu a\u015famada uzun volatilite opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyonlanman\u0131n, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ani ve agresif hamlelerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda, CME t\u00fcrevleri 2026 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinde %21\u2019den %49\u2019a sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu de\u011fi\u015fimi k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u015eahin para politikas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi eyl\u00fcle kadar tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 itmeye devam ederse, bu strateji y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilim nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun tetikleyebilece\u011fi daha geni\u015f bir piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik arz \u015foklar\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %15\u2013%20 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu da k\u00fcresel hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen yeniden 160 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test etti: Warsh \u015fahinli\u011fi Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %60\u2019a, 2026 art\u0131\u015f beklentisini %49\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 %80 fiyatlan\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7ici; volatilite opsiyonlar\u0131, petrol 90+ riskine call \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t