Piyasalar, Euro B\u00f6lgesi verisi \u00f6ncesinde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisini bekliyor. Man\u015fet HICP\u2019nin enerji ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin etkisiyle y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1\u2019e (\u00f6nceki: %2,8) y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek e\u011filimdeki ivme yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Asya\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zel RatingDog imalat PMI\u2019\u0131, a\u011fustosta 49,8\u2019e y\u00fckselen (beklenti: 49,6; \u00f6nceki: 49,2) resmi NBS verisini takip ediyor; imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI ise 49,0\u2019da kald\u0131. Japonya\u2019da nihai S&P Global imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n temmuzdaki 54,5\u2019e k\u0131yasla 55,1 seviyesini teyit etmesi bekleniyor. Haftan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD istihdam raporu var: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n +65 bin, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1\u2019de sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik risk, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Larak Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki iki roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019e f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 (haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re engellenen) f\u00fczelerin ard\u0131ndan petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; Brent 90 ABD dolar\u0131\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD\u2019de Fed mesajlar\u0131, eyl\u00fcle ili\u015fkin fiyatlamay\u0131 neredeyse \u201cyaz\u0131-tura\u201dya yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, BLS NFP i\u00e7in Nisan 2025\u2013Mart 2026 d\u00f6nemine y\u00f6nelik erken k\u0131yas revizyonunu -79 bin olarak i\u015faret etti. Avrupa\u2019da Komisyon\u2019un g\u00fcven endeksi 98,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (beklenti: 97,5; \u00f6nceki: 97,1). Fransa HICP y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (beklenti: %2,6; \u00f6nceki: %2,4) ve \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 seviyesinde seyretti; \u0130spanya HICP y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (beklenti: %4,6; \u00f6nceki: %3,9) ancak \u00e7ekirdek %3,0\u2019dan %2,8\u2019e geriledi. Fransa 2\u00c7 GSYH verisi %0,2 \u00e7\/\u00e7\u2019den %0,0 \u00e7\/\u00e7\u2019ye revize edildi. \u0130sve\u00e7 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019yi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (beklenti: %2,5) ve \u00e7eyreklik %1,6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; t\u00fcketim %0,9 \u00e7\/\u00e7, yat\u0131r\u0131m %3,5 \u00e7\/\u00e7 artt\u0131. NIER g\u00f6stergesi 105,1\u2019e y\u00fckselirken (\u00f6nceki: 104,6) imalat 107,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Norve\u00e7\u2019te NAV i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,1\u2019de kald\u0131; temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve trend -%1,3 (3A\/3A; \u00f6nceki: -%1,4) oldu. Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 riskli varl\u0131klarda yumu\u015fama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: S&P 500 %0,3, Nasdaq %0,5 gerilerken Russell 2000 %1,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; VIX 14,4\u2019e inerken ABD vadeli endeksleri %0,3 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara, enerji oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 Brent petrolde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. D\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son askeri gerilim, Brent\u2019i kritik 90 ABD dolar\u0131\/varil e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan, uzun straddle\u2019lar veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread\u2019leri mevcut ortamda olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki \u015fahin tonu, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse \u201cyaz\u0131-tura\u201d seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yarak dolar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekledi. Bu \u015fahin kayma, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon e\u011filiminin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair i\u015faretlerle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euro \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam raporunda olas\u0131 bir \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\/hedge \u00f6neriyoruz. 65 binlik \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklesek de, bu tahmini a\u015fan bir veri eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckilitleyebilir\u201d ve ABD getiri e\u011frisini daha da yatayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem e\u011filimler, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin politika beklentilerini s\u00fcrekli besledi\u011fine ve bunun da k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, piyasa ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fclde nihai bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken Euro B\u00f6lgesi faiz swaplar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, Avrupal\u0131 \u015firketlerde sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 beklentilerindeki gerileme ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde mutlak zirveye yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eahin ABD beklentileri ile zirveye yakla\u015fan Euro B\u00f6lgesi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden yakalamak, tercih etti\u011fimiz strateji olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent 90$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde: jeopolitik gerilim ve Fed belirsizli\u011fi piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Almanya\/Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu, cuma ABD istihdam\u0131 kritik. Strateji: Brent call\/straddle, EURUSD put, k\u0131sa vade faiz hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t