Hindistan rupisi, ABD verilerinin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, yenilenen ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin ard\u0131ndan artmas\u0131yla hareket h\u0131z kazand\u0131 ve enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomiye ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Erken i\u015flemlerde, 21 Eyl\u00fcl vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %2,13 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.160 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da k\u0131sa vadede dolar talebinin artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde alg\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda hafta sonu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar t\u0131rmand\u0131: ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilen \u0130ran roket rampalar\u0131n\u0131 vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) ise \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki iki ABD \u00fcss\u00fcne balistik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh %2 enflasyon hedefini yineledi; bunun ard\u0131ndan CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir hafta \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesinden %39,4\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Odak \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi; Temmuz verisinde 80 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 bin istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,53\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgeleri 95,53 ve 96,00, destek ise 94,92 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin aniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara enerji piyasalar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kritik bir dar bo\u011faz olan bu ge\u00e7itten g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u2014k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin neredeyse %20\u2019si\u2014ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 uzayan bir aksama ham petrol \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutacakt\u0131r. Bu ani jeopolitik risk priminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in MCX ham petrol\u00fcnde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini bozacak ve rupi \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 10 dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k GSYH\u2019nin %0,5\u2019i kadar geni\u015fletebilir; bu da do\u011fal olarak para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,53\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ikna edici bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmas\u0131 halinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/INR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, \u015fahin bir Fed alt\u0131nda ABD para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki de\u011fi\u015fim, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 gerektiriyor. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faize ara verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %39,4\u2019e sert bi\u00e7imde gerilerken, 96,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilebilir. ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken olas\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, Hindistan hisse endeksi t\u00fcrevlerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n yaln\u0131zca 23 binlik zay\u0131f istihdam rakam\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, bu pozisyonlar i\u00e7in nihai test niteli\u011finde olacak. Y\u00fcksek volatilite bekleniyor; bu nedenle i\u015flem sermayesini korumak ad\u0131na t\u00fcm aktif d\u00f6viz paritelerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc veri \u00f6ncesinde USD\/INR z\u0131mni volatilitesinde beklenen s\u0131\u00e7rama, prim toplama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol \u015foku rupi\u2019yi vurdu! ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle ham petrol %2\u2019yi a\u015farken USD\/INR 95,43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Fed ihtimali \u015fahinle\u015fti; g\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de, kritik seviyeler 95,53\/96,00.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t