Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir bu\u00e7uk haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndan toparlanarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Ancak faiz beklentileri, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019da enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131cak seyretti\u011fini ve ilave ilerleme olmadan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatlarken, CME Group\u2019un FedWatch Arac\u0131 Aral\u0131k hamlesi i\u00e7in %88 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu kayma Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\u2019yi iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131maya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de \u015fahin arka plan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltirken enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi: ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran\u2019a ait Larak Adas\u0131\u2019nda iki roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurdu; bunun \u00fczerine \u0130ran, \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki iki ABD \u00fcss\u00fcne balistik f\u00fcze ate\u015fledi. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ise yeni ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n muhtemelen haftal\u0131k olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Zay\u0131f ABD tahvil getirileri USD al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi dahil ABD makro verileri \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 frenledi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan fiyat, 4 saatlik grafikte 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez sarkt\u0131 ve %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; MACD negatif seyrini korurken RSI 25\u2019e yak\u0131n. Destek seviyeleri 4.346,16 dolar, 4.263,27 dolar, 4.145,27 dolar ve 3.994,96 dolar; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri ise 4.429,04 dolar, 4.475,07 dolar, 4.531,59 dolar ve 4.697,36 dolar olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, alt\u0131n\u0131n (XAU\/USD) sert %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan kritik 4.400 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini korumakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcn g\u00fcn i\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6rsek de, Fed\u2019den gelen \u015fahin sinyaller nedeniyle genel momentum g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmaya devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131, bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Arac\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rarken, Aral\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %88 gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir seviyede bulunuyor. Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh taraf\u0131ndan yeniden vurgulanan bu agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma duru\u015fu, tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri y\u00fckselirken bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread stratejileri veya k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki t\u0131rmanan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu durum k\u00fcresel enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalma riskini art\u0131rarak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin patikas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirebilir. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik \u015foklar alt\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 getirse de, \u015fu an bask\u0131n unsur Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in i\u015faret etti\u011fi haftal\u0131k ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131m tehdididir. Bu makro ortam\u0131n USD al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, alt\u0131n\u0131n 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ve %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 25 civar\u0131nda derin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fundan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli teknik tepkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; ancak en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yol, 4.346,16 dolar civar\u0131ndaki %50 d\u00fczeltme seviyesine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu destek seviyesini hedeflerken, en yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 olan 4.429,04 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r olacak. \u0130stihdam verisinin beklentilerden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftirerek alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 4.263,27 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Z\u0131mni volatilitede ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in, bu y\u00fcksek etkili veri \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.400 alt\u0131ndan tepki verse de Fed\u2019in \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 ve %60 Eyl\u00fcl, %88 Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, teknik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ve NFP \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t