Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ANZ Faaliyet G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc (Activity Outlook) A\u011fustos\u2019ta 48,2\u2019ye geriledi; \u00f6nceki okuma 49,3 seviyesindeydi. Bu hareket, endeksi 50 e\u015fi\u011finin daha da alt\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; 50 seviyesi genellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralma aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r olarak kabul edilir.<\/p>\n
Son sonu\u00e7, bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla anket momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. A\u011fustos\u2019taki geri \u00e7ekilme, zaten 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda olan bir okuman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve g\u00f6stergenin negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi uzatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ANZ Faaliyet G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn A\u011fustos\u2019ta 49,3\u2019ten 48,2\u2019ye hafif d\u00fc\u015fmesi, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 iyimserli\u011finin so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yumu\u015fayan verinin, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019na (NZD) haz\u0131rlanmaya y\u00f6neltece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu durum, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in faiz indirimine gitmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha fazla alan bulundu\u011fu sinyalini verir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, NZD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. NZD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015fen i\u015f aktivitesi d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla test edilen tarihsel destek seviyeleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,5900 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, beklenenden daha keskin bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in NZD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda ise Yeni Zelanda faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,80 civar\u0131nda seyreden 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faizi, piyasan\u0131n daha agresif faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte daha da gerileyebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde d\u00fc\u015fen getirilerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli banka bonosu vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (bank bill futures) k\u0131sa pozisyon almak da bir di\u011fer makul hamledir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki bu gerileme, bu y\u0131l %1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanan zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flar gibi di\u011fer son d\u00f6neme ait g\u00f6stergelerle de uyumlu. Bu yumu\u015fak veri bile\u015fiminin, \u00f6zellikle Avustralya Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere, Kiwi dolar\u0131n\u0131n maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 teyit edebilecek politika dilinde g\u00fcvercin (dovish) bir kayma olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan RBNZ a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Yeni Zelanda ANZ Faaliyet G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 48,2\u2019ye indi, 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda daralma sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. NZD bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; RBNZ\u2019den faiz indirimi beklentisi, NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,5900 hedefli shortlar\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t