ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Japon yeni\u2019nde son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketlerin \u201colduk\u00e7a kontroll\u00fc\u201d oldu\u011funu ve ge\u00e7en ay Japonya-ABD ortak m\u00fcdahalesine yol a\u00e7an d\u00fczensiz piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bessent ayr\u0131ca Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Abenomics reflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini belirterek, G20 maliye liderleri zirvesi kapsam\u0131nda Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda ile kulislerde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Bessent, BoJ\u2019nin art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gidip gitmemesi konusunda tavsiyede bulunmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n deste\u011fiyle para politikas\u0131nda uygun ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etti.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7in\u2019e ili\u015fkin olarak Bessent, Washington\u2019un g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc modellerin devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin eline ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6nlemeye odaklanan \u201cson derece kapsaml\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00fcr\u00fctece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G20 \u00fclkelerini k\u00fcresel dengesizlikleri azaltmak amac\u0131yla \u00c7in ile ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Bessent, daha sert ticaret bariyerlerinin Pekin\u2019i i\u00e7 talebe y\u00f6neltece\u011fini savundu. ABD, stratejik olmayan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde her iki taraf i\u00e7in 30 milyar dolar\u0131 kapsayan tarife indirimleri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Bessent, \u00c7in\u2019in 1,2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckabul edilemez\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. Piyasalarda USD\/JPY %0,02 art\u0131\u015fla 160,15\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, AUD\/USD %0,06 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7160\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yak\u0131n vadede kur m\u00fcdahalesi riskinin azalmas\u0131ndan faydalanarak k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc volatiliteyi satarak pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD Hazine\u2019sinin, Yen\u2019in 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckontroll\u00fc\u201d g\u00f6rmesi ve d\u00fczensiz bir hareket olarak de\u011ferlendirmemesi, daha \u00f6nce opsiyon ima edilen volatilitesini yukar\u0131 iten risk priminin geri \u00e7ekilmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde bu prim erimesini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa strangle stratejilerinin veya USD\/JPY\u2019de para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in Yen \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Halihaz\u0131rda ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,1 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirisi %1,1\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor; bu da 300 baz puanl\u0131k geni\u015f bir getiri fark\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Beklenmedik bir BoJ politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak \u00fczere 158 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullanarak vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden USD\/JPY uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl sonundaki kritik ABD-\u00c7in zirvesi \u00f6ncesinde, \u00c7in\u2019e duyarl\u0131 (China-proxy) varl\u0131klarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019in 1,2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k dev ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 ve daha sert ticaret bariyerleri tehdidi, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 0,7160 seviyesinde zay\u0131f seyreden AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 ani tarife a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019nin ileri seviye yapay zek\u00e2 modellerinin devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlere ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye odaklanmas\u0131, muhtemelen mega \u00f6l\u00e7ekli teknoloji hisseleri t\u00fcrevlerinde dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7acak. Yar\u0131 iletken ve yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131m devlerine y\u00f6nelik d\u00fczenleyici incelemenin artmas\u0131na konumlanmak i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 endeksi \u00fczerinde takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spreads) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, pe\u015fin prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken uzun vadeli volatilitedeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: Bessent, Yen\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u201ckontroll\u00fc\u201d buldu; m\u00fcdahale riski azald\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019le teknoloji k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve tarife pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; AUD k\u0131r\u0131lgan, Nasdaq\u2019ta volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t