Alt\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon verilerini ve Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.000 dolardan A\u011fustos\u2019un ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 4.700 dolara yak\u0131n seviyelere t\u0131rmanarak y\u00fckseldi. Fed, fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedefini ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksinde %2 olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve enflasyonun her zaman ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion) g\u00f6stermek zorunda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. Jackson Hole\u2019daki politika de\u011ferlendirmeleri de enflasyonist zeminin be\u015f y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, ko\u015fullar\u0131n yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 anlat\u0131 i\u00e7indeki makro veriler ise daha zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme nabz\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor: ABD i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ve 2023 dip seviyesinin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyrederken, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Temmuz\u2019da darald\u0131. Hem imalat hem de imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI\u2019lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geni\u015flemeyle uyumlu oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor; bu da daha s\u0131k\u0131 parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha da yava\u015flatabilece\u011fi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD ulusal borcu 40 trilyon dolardayken, daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 bor\u00e7 servis maliyetlerini y\u00fckselterek a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in baz\u0131 Hazine tahvili varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck resm\u00ee ad\u0131mlar ise, QE\u2019ye benzer \u015fekilde Hazine tahvili al\u0131mlar\u0131 olarak nitelendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 4.000 dolardan h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.700 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini yoklarken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda agresif \u015fekilde pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son veriler, ekonominin Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu uzun s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131yamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu makroekonomik zemin, alt\u0131n\u0131n birincil g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in ideal bir ortam yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ulusal borcu tarihi 40 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flemine y\u00f6nelinmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent piyasay\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak amac\u0131yla tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015f olsa da, borcun b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nedeniyle getiriler \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan k\u00e2r etmek i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in enflasyona y\u00f6nelik kat\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131\u2014Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack\u2019in Jackson Hole\u2019daki son \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla da vurguland\u0131\u2014yak\u0131n vadede politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak bu \u015fahinlik, Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 yoluyla \u201carka kap\u0131\u201d niceliksel geni\u015fleme (QE) uygulamas\u0131yla do\u011frudan \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6rne\u011fin alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri al\u0131rken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak gibi spread stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed, yava\u015flayan bir ekonomiye ra\u011fmen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya giderse, piyasa volatilitesinde sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ve olas\u0131 bir resesyon g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etmek veya bu senaryoya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alabilir ya da maj\u00f6r hisse endekslerinde ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerini kullanabilir. Tarihsel olarak, bor\u00e7\/GSYH oranlar\u0131 bu kadar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasa d\u00fczeltmeleri \u00e7ok daha sert olur; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilite korumas\u0131n\u0131 kritik hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.700 dolar\u0131 zorlarken Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Strateji: alt\u0131n call, uzun vade Hazine put; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda spread, VIX ile volatilite kalkan\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t