\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonu, daha \u00f6nce hiperb\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fclerde (hyperscaler) sermaye harcamalar\u0131 (capex) ve serbest nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin ard\u0131ndan, yapay zek\u00e2 temas\u0131n\u0131 ABD hisselerinin yeniden merkezine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. S&P 500 yeni rekorlar k\u0131rarken, JPMorgan 2026 i\u00e7in hedefini 8.000\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; banka, haziranda daha \u00f6nceki 7.600 tahminini 7.800\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131ktan sonra yeni hedefe ge\u00e7ti. Yeni seviye, ge\u00e7en haftaki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline i\u015faret ediyor. Endeks, Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019de OpenAI\u2019\u0131n ChatGPT b\u00fcy\u00fck dil modelinin lansman\u0131 ile g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanan \u00fcretken yapay zek\u00e2 ivmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u015eubat 2024\u2019te ilk kez 5.000 seviyesini a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ise ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda sava\u015f\u0131n patlak vermesini takiben, g\u00f6sterge endeks mart ay\u0131na kadar %8,5\u2019ten fazla gerileyerek 6.300\u2019e do\u011fru kayd\u0131; piyasalar enflasyon risklerini yeniden fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00e2r kalemlerine dair ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar bu endi\u015feleri hafifletti. Alphabet hisseleri, capex beklentisini 195 milyar\u2013205 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan %5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, orta noktada 15 milyar dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler ayr\u0131ca \u201cMuhte\u015fem Yedili\u201dnin yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da 750 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Endeks genelinde \u015firketlerin %86\u2019s\u0131 HBK (EPS) beklentilerini, %77\u2019si gelir tahminlerini a\u015ft\u0131; harmanlanm\u0131\u015f 2\u00c7 2026 k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %47,4 ile son yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesinde. 3\u00c7 i\u00e7in k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi tahminleri ocakta %14\u2019ten son d\u00f6nemde %21,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, revizyonlar teknolojinin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek enerji ve di\u011fer d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlere yay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya girerken S&P 500, ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki y\u0131ll\u0131k %47,4\u2019l\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin deste\u011fiyle 7.800 civar\u0131nda rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Wall Street y\u0131l sonu hedeflerini 8.000\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalayacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bununla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalara da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl, S&P 500 i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n en zorlu ay\u0131; son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek mevsimsel geri \u00e7ekilmeyi panik nedeni de\u011fil, \u201cal\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. Ekim veya kas\u0131m vadeli SPX \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanmak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 8.000\u2019e do\u011fru hareketten faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji devleri bu y\u0131l yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 750 milyar dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, \u015firket temelleri son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. 3\u00c7 k\u00e2r tahminleri halihaz\u0131rda %21,7\u2019ye revize edildi\u011finden, bir sonraki bilan\u00e7o sezonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. Piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilmelerinde mega-cap teknoloji hisselerinde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak, prim geliri \u00fcretmenin etkili bir yolu.<\/p>\n
\u0130yimserlik y\u00fcksek olsa da, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00f6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcren enflasyonist etkileri volatilitenin h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in portf\u00f6ylerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda koruyucu sat\u0131m (protective put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131k kal\u0131rken, beklenmedik jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yapay zek\u00e2, 2\u00c7 k\u00e2r s\u00fcrprizleriyle ABD hisselerinde yeniden ba\u015frolde: S&P 500 rekor tazelerken JPMorgan 2026 hedefini 8.000\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl dalgas\u0131 al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131; opsiyonla korunmal\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t