Meksika pesosu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n 2026\u2019da olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan MXN %0,42\u2019den fazla geriledi. USD\/MXN, 16,94\u2019ten tepki verdikten sonra 17,04 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar Endeksi ise %0,52\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla 99,64\u2019e y\u00fckselerek yedi g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvelerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, faiz beklentileri bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru bir hamle ihtimaline kayd\u0131. Warsh, %2 PCE hedefini yineledi ve para politikas\u0131ndaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde ilerleme olmamas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni A\u011fustos\u2019ta gerilerken, Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) y\u0131ll\u0131k revizyonu -79 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; 183 binlik beklentiye g\u00f6re zay\u0131f olsa da \u00f6nceki -911 binden iyile\u015fti. Meksika\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da %2,9\u2019da sabit kalarak %3 tahmininin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi ise 0,465 milyar dolar fazla verdi ve Haziran\u2019daki 3,752 milyar dolarl\u0131k fazlaya g\u00f6re geriledi. Grafiklerde USD\/MXN 17,0362 olarak belirtilirken, 17,3077 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen basit hareketli ortalamalar, 41,7 seviyesinde RSI (14) ve 18,1651 ile 21,0808\u2019den \u00e7izilen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trend referans seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta g\u00fcndemde 31 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Meksika mali dengesi ve 3 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni; ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ISM PMI\u2019lar, Beige Book ve 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de A\u011fustos istihdam verisi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131nda ani bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum USD\/MXN paritesini yeniden 17,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli ivme baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalasa da, parite 17,31 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece daha geni\u015f teknik e\u011filim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerine uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n ani g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %10,75 civar\u0131nda seyreden y\u00fcksek politika faizi, ABD faizlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir getiri avantaj\u0131 sunmaya devam ediyor. Bu geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, peso carry trade\u2019ini olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 tutarak tarihsel olarak USD\/MXN\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fin ne kadar uza\u011fa gidebilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlar. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, istikrarl\u0131 prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satarak bu yap\u0131dan faydalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verileri\u20144 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mali verileri d\u00e2hil\u2014sert dalgalanmalara neden olabilir. Bu riski, 17,30 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak ve olas\u0131 ani dolar s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalayarak y\u00f6netebiliriz. Parite bu teknik bariyeri a\u015famazsa, bask\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendle uyumlu \u015fekilde yeniden sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131 uygun olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eahin Warsh s\u00fcrpriziyle dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, peso %0,42 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; USD\/MXN 17,04\u2019te. DXY 99,64. 17,31 diren\u00e7 kritik. Y\u00fcksek Meksika faizi carry\u2019yi destekler; NFP ve veriler volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t