{"id":53410,"date":"2026-08-29T09:26:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T09:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/commerzbank-ticaret-fazlasi-buyurken-ve-yatirimcilar-daha-fazla-deger-kaybini-fiyatlarken-cinin-zayif-yuan-egilimine-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T09:26:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T09:26:47","slug":"commerzbank-ticaret-fazlasi-buyurken-ve-yatirimcilar-daha-fazla-deger-kaybini-fiyatlarken-cinin-zayif-yuan-egilimine-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbank-ticaret-fazlasi-buyurken-ve-yatirimcilar-daha-fazla-deger-kaybini-fiyatlarken-cinin-zayif-yuan-egilimine-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank, ticaret fazlas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, \u00c7in\u2019in zay\u0131f yuan e\u011filimine dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Commerzbank, CNY\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa ve bunun ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fine ili\u015fkin kurum i\u00e7i bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sorgularken, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bunun yerine \u00c7in\u2019in kur y\u00f6netimi ve alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131na kayd\u0131rd\u0131; banka, bu unsurlar\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir para birimi duru\u015fuyla uyumlu oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti. Arg\u00fcman, \u00c7in\u2019in fiyatlama avantaj\u0131n\u0131n ticaret sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na nas\u0131l yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken; ihracat sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek birden fazla dinamik bulundu\u011funu ve \u00c7in\u2019in baz\u0131 kategorilerde yeni pazarlar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da kabul ediyor.<\/p>\n

2019\u2019dan 2025 sonuna kadar \u00c7in\u2019in reel ihracat\u0131 %47 artarken, k\u00fcresel ticaret %15 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 milyar ABD dolar\u0131ndan 1,180 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. 2025\u2019te \u00c7in\u2019in imalat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fazlas\u0131, k\u00fcresel gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n %1,75\u2019ine ula\u015ft\u0131. 2019\u20132025 d\u00f6neminde CNY\u2019nin reel efektif kuru ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ise %22 geriledi; ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkiler de\u011ferlendirilirken yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019lik bir reel kur avantaj\u0131na da at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel Ticaret Gerilimleri Ortas\u0131nda Yuan \u00dczerindeki S\u00fcregelen Bask\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00c7in yuan\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonu itibar\u0131yla 1,18 trilyon dolara ula\u015farak b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in\u2019in devasa d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131, y\u00fcksek rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip bir kur seviyesiyle desteklenmeye devam ediyor. K\u00fcresel ticaret gerilimleri artarken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n devasa pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in para birimini zay\u0131f tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n

A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya ait son veriler, USD\/CNY kurunun 7,25 seviyesini test etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda diren\u00e7li bir \u015fekilde %7 artt\u0131. Bat\u0131l\u0131 piyasalar yeni tarifeleri devreye al\u0131rken (\u00f6rne\u011fin Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00c7in men\u015feli elektrikli ara\u00e7lara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vergiler), bu diren\u00e7 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor ve Pekin\u2019i kur avantaj\u0131n\u0131 korumaya zorluyor. Kurda ani yukar\u0131 hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Tarihsel Ba\u011flam<\/h3>\n

2018 ve 2019\u2019daki ticaret \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yuan\u0131n yabanc\u0131 tarifeleri telafi etmek \u00fczere sert bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; benzer bir kal\u0131b\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Para birimi son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zaten belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, EUR\/CNH paritesinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip buluyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yuan\u0131n beklenenden daha sert bir deval\u00fcasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlar\u0131 hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yuan\u2019da bask\u0131 bitmiyor: Commerzbank, \u00c7in\u2019in kur y\u00f6netimi ve alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f CNY duru\u015fuyla uyumlu oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. \u0130hracat\/fazla s\u0131\u00e7rarken, USD\/CNH call ve EUR\/CNH put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t