DBS Group stratejistleri, ilk 20 g\u00fcn verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda +%56 gelmesine dayanarak G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin a\u011fustos ay\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k %70,4 ile zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, d\u0131\u015f talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korusa bile a\u011fustosta \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ayda da so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Not, bu ihracat dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 KOSPI ve Kore wonu (KRW) i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur olarak ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin temmuzdaki %2,8\u2019den sonra a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019e toparlanaca\u011f\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin de yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve b\u00f6ylece iki g\u00f6stergenin ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgide bulu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Analiz, enerji belirsizli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; t\u00fcketimin toparlanmas\u0131 ve nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131yla talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyonda da h\u0131zlanma beklendi\u011fini kaydediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoK) ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel bir politika tepkisi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Kore wonu (KRW) ve KOSPI endeksi \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130hracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi son zirvelerinden itibaren yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flasa da, diren\u00e7li k\u00fcresel talebin etkisiyle genel ticaret dengesi olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, KRW\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyonlar veya KOSPI ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerde al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Son ticaret verileri bu yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor: G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin Temmuz 2026 ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %13,9 artarak 57,4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi ve on ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme serisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yar\u0131 iletkenler ve otomotiv gibi kilit sekt\u00f6rlerdeki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 ivme, k\u00fcresel kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara ra\u011fmen d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn, Kore varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha geni\u015f geli\u015fen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tamponlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 cephesinde ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan \u015fahin bir e\u011filime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de t\u00fcketici enflasyonu 2026 ortas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5-%3 band\u0131nda seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla politika faizini %3,50 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin toparlanmas\u0131yla talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyonun g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kap\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu dinamikler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 ve tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklanmas\u0131 uygun olabilir. Piyasalar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faizleri fiyatlamas\u0131yla tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da Kore 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca yar\u0131 iletken d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flarken, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck hisselerde olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) yapmak da temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kore\u2019de ihracat a\u011fustosta %60 civar\u0131nda, 30 milyar $ fazla sinyali veriyor: KOSPI ve won destek bulabilir. Enflasyon %3\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken BoK faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; t\u00fcrevlerde KRW bullish, tahvil short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t