\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey, Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda Bloomberg TV\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bailey, \u015fu ana kadar g\u00f6zlenen ikinci tur etkilerin \u201colduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d ve \u201cnispeten zay\u0131f\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, bir s\u00fcredir yumu\u015fayan bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bailey ayr\u0131ca, 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki bir sonraki para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fimdilik bu durumu izleyebilece\u011fini\u201d ifade etti. BoE\u2019nin herhangi bir faiz patikas\u0131na \u00f6nceden ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ko\u015fullar\u0131 toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Bailey, zay\u0131f ikinci tur etkilerin devam edece\u011fine dair s\u00f6z veremeyece\u011fini de ekledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sterlin ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey\u2019nin Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019ndaki son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizlere ili\u015fkin set bir rota olmaks\u0131z\u0131n toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya karar verece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki politika karar\u0131n\u0131 bir sonraki ekonomik veri setine y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, faiz indirimlerinin daha yava\u015f bir tempoda ilerleyece\u011fi beklentisine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u015eu anda para piyasalar\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli tonunu yans\u0131tarak eyl\u00fclde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n taahh\u00fcts\u00fcz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde opsiyonlar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi volatilite \u00e7o\u011fu zaman fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur; bu da volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece ucuz al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, yakla\u015fan enflasyon ve istihdam verilerinin fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmesi halinde sterlin i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,0 seviyesine gerileyerek ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki %5,5\u2019in \u00fczerindeki d\u00fczeylerden indi; bu da daha zay\u0131f ikinci tur enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. BoE\u2019nin daha g\u00fcvercin bir tona kaymas\u0131 durumunda sterlinde ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu n\u00f6tr g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sindirmesiyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin %3,9 civar\u0131nda dengelendi\u011fi gilt piyasas\u0131n\u0131n da izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ba\u015fkan\u0131n zay\u0131f enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enflasyonunda olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrpriz y\u00fckseli\u015f getirileri h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde getirilerde ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in, faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden sabit faiz \u00f6deyen (pay fixed) pozisyonlar kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jackson Hole\u2019dan Bailey mesaj\u0131: Britanya\u2019da ikinci tur enflasyon zay\u0131f, BoE 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar bekle-g\u00f6r modunda. Piyasalar %40 indirim fiyatl\u0131yor; sterlin-faizlerde volatilite, SONIA, GBP\/USD put, pay-fixed swap \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t