{"id":53394,"date":"2026-08-29T01:27:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T01:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiliginin-yukselmesi-ve-ticaret-tarifelerinin-piyasalari-sarsmasiyla-eur-usd-11600in-altina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T01:27:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T01:27:07","slug":"fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiliginin-yukselmesi-ve-ticaret-tarifelerinin-piyasalari-sarsmasiyla-eur-usd-11600in-altina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-faiz-artirimi-olasiliginin-yukselmesi-ve-ticaret-tarifelerinin-piyasalari-sarsmasiyla-eur-usd-11600in-altina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Y\u00fckselmesi ve Ticaret Tarifelerinin Piyasalar\u0131 Sarsmas\u0131yla EUR\/USD 1,1600\u2019in Alt\u0131na Geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD Piyasa Geli\u015fmeleri ve Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD, a\u011fustosun son tam haftas\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; 1.1710\u2019dan geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra 1.1600 seviyesinin birka\u00e7 pip alt\u0131ndayken haftay\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n parite, 1.1350\u2019deki ayl\u0131k dip seviyenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle derinle\u015fen bir ayl\u0131k kay\u0131p serisinin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. Mart-temmuz d\u00f6nemindeki \u00f6nceki USD g\u00fcc\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini beslemesiyle ili\u015fkilendirilmi\u015fti; ancak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi geriledi. Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u015fahin fiyatlamay\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131; CME FedWatch\u2019un ima etti\u011fi eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019ten %45,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Ticaret gerilimleri, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Kanada ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k vergileri devreye almas\u0131yla belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131; ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte misilleme tarifeleri geldi. ABD verileri genel olarak beklentilere yak\u0131nd\u0131: 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,5\u2019te teyit edilirken, temmuz PCE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile (%3,6 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131) sabit kald\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE %3,3 seviyesini korudu; Mart 2026\u2019ya kadar olan 12 ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 79 bin (ya da %0,1) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda, a\u011fustos T\u00dcFE (HICP) %2,9\u2019dan %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek HICP\u2019nin %2,5 ile de\u011fi\u015fmemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD, 1.1591 ve 1.1573\u2019teki 20 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar (SMA) \u00e7evresinde tutunuyor; 1.1633\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Haftal\u0131k destekler aras\u0131nda 1.1571\u2019de 20 haftal\u0131k SMA yer al\u0131rken, daha uzun vadeli SMA\u2019lar 1.1330 ve 1.1067 seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7 1.1710; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 1.1800 hedefi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. RSI g\u00f6stergeleri g\u00fcnl\u00fckte 54, haftal\u0131kta 51 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Artan Volatiliteye Y\u00f6nelik Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya girerken piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ani bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; EUR\/USD 1.1600 seviyesinin alt\u0131na geri \u00e7ekiliyor. Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed\u2019den gelen \u015fahin ton, eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %45,7\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu yenilenen \u201cgreenback\u201d g\u00fcc\u00fcne h\u0131zla uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131 ve orta vadeli olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1.1550 civar\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, paritenin 1.1591 ve 1.1573\u2019teki 20 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama desteklerinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl, Euro i\u00e7in mevsimsel a\u00e7\u0131dan en zay\u0131f ay olageldi; son on y\u0131lda transatlantik para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde EUR\/USD\u2019nin ortalama %1,2 geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Makro Riskler Ortam\u0131nda Vadeli \u0130\u015flem Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in Taktikler<\/h3>\n

AB Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) ve ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam gibi \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131, ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesini muhtemel k\u0131l\u0131yor. Nihai y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. AB enflasyonunun %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi beklentisi ve ABD\u2019de 45 bin yeni istihdam \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, sert piyasa tepkilerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Vadeli i\u015flemlerde i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, EUR\/USD\u2019nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kritik 1.1570 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indirmesi halinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu seviyede net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u00f6zellikle Kanada ile ticaret gerilimlerinin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 durumunda, pariteyi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 1.1350\u2019deki ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir. Riski etkin y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, 1.1633\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss emirleri kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: EUR\/USD 1,1710\u2019dan geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp 1,1600 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Kritik 1,1570 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1350 hedef; opsiyonda put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t