{"id":53392,"date":"2026-08-29T00:26:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T00:26:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/aud-usd-sahin-warshin-eylul-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltmesiyle-geriledi-rbanin-sikilastirmasi-destek-oluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T00:26:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T00:26:15","slug":"aud-usd-sahin-warshin-eylul-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltmesiyle-geriledi-rbanin-sikilastirmasi-destek-oluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/aud-usd-sahin-warshin-eylul-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltmesiyle-geriledi-rbanin-sikilastirmasi-destek-oluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD, \u015fahin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesiyle geriledi; RBA\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 destek oluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,30 gerileyerek 0,7170 civar\u0131na indi. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 0,7206\u2019ya kadar y\u00fckselerek may\u0131s ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un \u015fahin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 yeniden talep buldu. Warsh, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceli\u011fi olmaya devam etti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun hedefe do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fine dair g\u00fcven duymas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtirken %2\u2019lik Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) hedefini korudu. Faiz beklentileri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fti: CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %36\u2019dan %60 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; bu da parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Avustralya Dolar\u0131 ise RBA B\u00fclteni\u2019nden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek ald\u0131. B\u00fclten, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n pandemi sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde %2-%3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini belirterek, y\u0131l sonuna kadar d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Enflasyon verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: T\u00dcFE temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hazirandaki %3,8\u2019den %3,5\u2019e gerilese de %3,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Ortalama T\u00dcFE ise %3,6 ile %3,5 beklentisinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Teknik tarafta AUD\/USD 0,7166\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (0,7108 ve 0,7053) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 46\u2019ya so\u011furken, destek 0,7135\u2019te, diren\u00e7 0,7206\u2019da izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Strateji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc: USD G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Oynakl\u0131\u011fa Pozisyon Alma<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan oynakl\u0131k ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cgreenback\u201d senaryosuna pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 ba\u015fl\u0131ca tehdit oldu\u011funa dair \u015fahin uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu kayma halihaz\u0131rda sermayeyi ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekiyor, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 itiyor ve AUD\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde anl\u0131k bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, bu USD g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc Avustralya\u2019daki inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla dengelemek gerekiyor: temmuzda enflasyon %3,5 ile %3,2\u2019lik piyasa tahmininin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RBA\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l bitmeden bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklendi\u011finden, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel \u201ctaban\u201d korunuyor. Bu politika \u00e7eki\u015fmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, olu\u015fmu\u015f i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen k\u0131sa straddle veya iron condor gibi oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik Seviyeler ve \u0130\u015flem Kurgusu<\/h3>\n

Teknik olarak, 100 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalama ve y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisiyle kesi\u015fen 0,7108-0,7117 aras\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesi izlenmeli. Parite bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilirse, olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini yakalamak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tersine, paritenin 0,7206\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmakta zorlanmas\u0131 halinde, savunmac\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli olarak olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in \u015fahin Warsh mesaj\u0131 dolar talebini canland\u0131rd\u0131; AUD\/USD 0,7170\u2019e indi. Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. RBA enflasyonu destekliyor; kritik destek 0,7135, diren\u00e7 0,7206.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t