{"id":53391,"date":"2026-08-28T23:27:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T23:27:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/warsh-faiz-artisi-olasiligi-yukselip-getiri-egrisi-yataylasirken-jackson-holeda-yonlendirme-yapmiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T23:27:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T23:27:25","slug":"warsh-faiz-artisi-olasiligi-yukselip-getiri-egrisi-yataylasirken-jackson-holeda-yonlendirme-yapmiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/warsh-faiz-artisi-olasiligi-yukselip-getiri-egrisi-yataylasirken-jackson-holeda-yonlendirme-yapmiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh, Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Y\u00fckselip Getiri E\u011frisi Yatayla\u015f\u0131rken Jackson Hole\u2019da Y\u00f6nlendirme Yapm\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 herhangi bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme i\u00e7ermedi; bu da piyasalar\u0131 politika mesaj\u0131 konusunda ikiye b\u00f6ld\u00fc. Warsh, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyona odakl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fini vurgulayarak %2\u2019lik manda hedefine at\u0131fta bulundu; ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretmesine ra\u011fmen finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirilirken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %3,3 ile hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti. Faiz patikas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k, konu\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki %35 seviyesinden %40\u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda hareketler ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirisi 6 baz puan y\u00fckselirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 1 baz puan geriledi ve getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131n %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.600 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi; 4.538 dolar seviyesi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) deste\u011fi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Dolar endeksi %0,3 y\u00fckselirken, EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD %0,3\u2019ten fazla geriledi; GBP\/USD 1,3450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve sterlin haftal\u0131k bazda %0,6 eksideydi. Hisselerde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Dow Jones ve S&P 500 hafif y\u00fckselirken, Nasdaq ve Russell 2000 geriledi; Nvidia %8\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Salesforce ise tarihteki en iyi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %3 artt\u0131. Bitcoin 79.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n

Hisse Ve Faiz Piyasas\u0131 Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel olarak hisse senetleri i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f ay\u0131 olan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e giriyoruz; S&P 500, 1928\u2019den bu yana ortalama %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelen son derece kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6zsermaye t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na sonbahar kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla ba\u015fl\u0131ca hisse endekslerinde koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131yla hedge \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu temkinli duru\u015f, Nvidia gibi piyasa liderlerinde tarihi y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan k\u00e2r realizasyonunun ba\u015flamas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak daha yatay bir getiri e\u011frisine g\u00f6re konumlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli getirilerdeki ani 6 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7rama, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para ko\u015fullar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda put al\u0131m\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz, Alt\u0131n Ve Kripto \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, dolar\u0131n mevcut momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ngiliz sterlini \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor: 1,3450 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak bu hafta G7\u2019nin en zay\u0131f para birimi konumuna geldi. Geni\u015fleyen para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) almak etkili bir y\u00f6ntem.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, metalin 4.600 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fi test etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde k\u0131sa pozisyon aramas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, reel getiriler y\u00fckselirken ve merkez bankas\u0131 yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131rken alt\u0131n zorlan\u0131r; \u00e7ekirdek PCE \u015fu anda %3,3 seviyesinde. 4.538 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamay\u0131 hedeflemek \u00fczere bear put spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019in psikolojik 79.000 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla, kriptoda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. \u201cDolar\u0131n alternatifi\u201d temas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve y\u00fckselen getirilerin nakit benzeri alternatifleri daha cazip hale getirmesiyle h\u0131zla cazibesini yitiriyor. Bitcoin vadeli i\u015flemleri veya ilgili borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Warsh\u2019tan Jackson Hole\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz: y\u00f6nlendirme yok, piyasa b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; e\u011fri yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, alt\u0131n\/kripto zay\u0131f. Hissede hedge \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t