Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir konu\u015fma slotunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ne ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir y\u00f6nlendirme ne de a\u00e7\u0131k bir tepki fonksiyonu i\u00e7erdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemler Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fc yeniden fiyatlad\u0131. Metin kendisini bir \u201cyol haritas\u0131\u201d olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor, ko\u015ful, e\u015fik ya da y\u00f6n sinyallerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yordu; yine de Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %55\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %35,4). Ba\u015fkan, ekonomiyi diren\u00e7li ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 genel hatlar\u0131yla tam istihdamla uyumlu olarak nitelendirirken; yaz aylar\u0131na ait T\u00dcFE ve PCE verilerinin beklentilerden iyi geldi\u011fini ancak altta yatan e\u011filimlerde iyile\u015fmeyi teyit etmek i\u00e7in yetersiz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcrerse Komite\u2019nin \u201cyapacak i\u015fi\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. 16 Eyl\u00fcl yakla\u015f\u0131rken piyasalar kurallardan \u00e7ok tonu fiyatlad\u0131; s\u00fcre\u00e7 odakl\u0131 bir konu\u015fma \u00fczerinden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Faizler ve hisseler bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri 6 baz puandan fazla artarak bir ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karken uzun vade yatay kald\u0131 ve getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015ft\u0131; konu\u015fmada 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren daha uzun vadeli geri al\u0131mlarda tavan\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 beklenen Hazine operasyonuna de\u011finilmedi. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi konu\u015fmaya do\u011fru g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 320 puan y\u00fckselerek 53.800\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; daha sonra bunun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 53.700 civar\u0131na \u00e7ekildi ve %0,18 art\u0131da kapand\u0131. Endeks b\u00f6ylece ay ortas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez 53.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq Composite daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; endeks A\u011fustos 5\u2019teki 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki rekorun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Sempozyum 29 A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Eyl\u00fcl 16 karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de A\u011fustos istihdam verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n
Fed\u2019in piyasalara net bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme b\u0131rakmamas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 haftada artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 %35,4\u2019ten %55\u2019in \u00fczerine sert bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n sabit taahh\u00fctlerden ziyade \u201cdisiplinle\u201d hareket eden bir Fed\u2019e uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00d6zellikle 4 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verisi gibi kritik veriler yakla\u015f\u0131rken, yak\u0131n vadedeki ima edilen volatilite (IV) yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamalar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Getiri e\u011frisinin yatayla\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu durum Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri ve faiz swaplar\u0131nda stratejik f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler ayl\u0131k zirvelere s\u0131\u00e7rarken uzun vade yatay kalarak, e\u011frinin k\u0131sa ucunun Fed duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tahvil piyasas\u0131 kontrol\u00fcndeki bu keskin ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in e\u011fri yatayla\u015ft\u0131rma pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131; arka ucu al\u0131p \u00f6n ucu satarak (uzun vade uzun, k\u0131sa vade k\u0131sa) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda ise 53.800 diren\u00e7 seviyesi y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimiyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeksin bu band\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kmakta tekrar tekrar ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI\u2019\u0131n orta banttan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi nedeniyle, 53.500 ve 53.200 desteklerine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklenmedik bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma momentumu riskine kar\u015f\u0131, 53.900 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n hemen \u00fcst\u00fcne s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in \u201cyol haritas\u0131\u201d gibi ama y\u00f6ns\u00fcz konu\u015fmas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %35\u2019ten %55\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131klar s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, e\u011fri yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Hisseler dalgal\u0131; t\u00fcrevde IV f\u0131rsat\u0131, Dow\u2019da 53.800 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t