ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,36 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; spot seviye 99,47 oldu. Y\u00fckseli\u015fte, Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 etkili oldu. Warsh, Fed\u2019in %2 PCE enflasyon hedefini yineledi ve yaz aylar\u0131nda veriler iyile\u015fse de yetkililerin altta yatan enflasyonun bu hedefe do\u011fru ilerledi\u011finden emin olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Faiz beklentileri buna paralel de\u011fi\u015fti: CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %36\u2019dan %56\u2019ya y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. BLS\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc NFP (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam) k\u0131yaslama revizyonu, Mart\u2019a kadar olan 12 ayda istihdam\u0131n 79 bin (=%0,1) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki 911 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f revizyonunun ard\u0131ndan geldi. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin A\u011fustos t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi 51\u2019den 51,7\u2019ye yukar\u0131 revize edilse de Temmuz\u2019daki 55,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; beklentiler alt endeksi 50,6\u2019dan 51,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken Temmuz\u2019daki 55,4\u2019\u00fcn gerisinde seyretti. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,3\u2019ten %4\u2019e gerilerken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde DXY, 99,08 ve 99,06\u2019daki 100 saatlik ve 200 saatlik basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI 75\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti; diren\u00e7 99,70 civar\u0131nda, trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fi ise 99,16 yak\u0131n\u0131nda (99,26 ile birlikte) izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019ndan gelen \u015fahin sinyallerin ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %56 g\u00f6stermesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor. Geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 tercih edilerek, 99,70\u2019teki yak\u0131n direncin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte saatlik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) halen 75 gibi \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyretmesi, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir konsolidasyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel i\u015flem verileri, ABD Dolar Endeksi bu seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ana trend devam etmeden \u00f6nce s\u0131kl\u0131kla %0,2\u2013%0,4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011finin bulundu\u011fu 99,16 civar\u0131na al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu i\u00e7in limit emirler ya da uzun vadeli i\u015flem pozisyon giri\u015fleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, de\u011fi\u015fen faiz beklentilerinden faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda pozisyonlanarak da yararlan\u0131labilir; \u00f6zellikle \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle getiriler ayarlan\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 hedeflenebilir. K\u0131yaslama revizyonunun, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlara k\u0131yasla 79 bin ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bu daha y\u00fcksek faizleri ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek kadar diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Beklenmedik ekonomik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in 200 saatlik hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndaki 99,06 seviyesinin alt\u0131na savunmac\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jackson Hole\u2019da Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 DXY\u2019\u0131 99,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %56 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Veriler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m. Strateji: 99,16\u2019dan call, 99,70 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131; 99,06 stop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t