{"id":53377,"date":"2026-08-28T15:28:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T15:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolar-eur-usd-paritesinin-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-test-ettigi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-revizyonunun-yaklastigi-ortamda-haftalik-zirveye-yakin-karisik-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T15:28:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T15:28:17","slug":"dolar-eur-usd-paritesinin-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-test-ettigi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-revizyonunun-yaklastigi-ortamda-haftalik-zirveye-yakin-karisik-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-eur-usd-paritesinin-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-test-ettigi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-revizyonunun-yaklastigi-ortamda-haftalik-zirveye-yakin-karisik-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, EUR\/USD Paritesinin 200 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Ortalamay\u0131 Test Etti\u011fi ve ABD \u0130stihdam Verisi Revizyonunun Yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortamda Haftal\u0131k Zirveye Yak\u0131n Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131, hisse senetleri ve tahvil getirileri genel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken bir haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seviyelerde kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz pariteleri teknik e\u015fikleri test etti. EUR\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken, USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131; bu seviyelerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde hareketlerin h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Jackson Hole \u00e7evresindeki Fed yorumlar\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, at\u0131f yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f politikan\u0131n h\u00e2len hafif \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi; bu durum, faiz beklentilerinde g\u00fcvercin y\u00f6nde yeniden fiyatlama i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizinin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda k\u00fcm\u00fclatif yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n da fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca, Londra saatiyle 15:00\u2019te ve New York saatiyle 10:00\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) \u00f6nc\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k istihdam bordro k\u0131yaslama revizyonuna \u00e7evrildi. 185 binlik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme bekleniyor; bu da Mart 2026\u2019ya kadar olan 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde bordro art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 bin ki\u015fi eksik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir revizyon ise zay\u0131f i\u015fe al\u0131m endi\u015feleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcvercin Fed Beklentileri Ortam\u0131nda Stratejik \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Piyasa beklentilerinin g\u00fcvercin bir Fed\u2019e kaymas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir gerilemeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 test etmesi ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fi etraf\u0131nda seyretmesi, ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc (kontraryen) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 sunan kilit teknik seviyeler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in daha gev\u015fek bir para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi halinde, bu maj\u00f6r paritelerde sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

Mevcut durumda Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131da hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n %3,75 ile %4,00 aras\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %35 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, enflasyonun so\u011fudu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi gibi\u2014piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda dolar endeksi (DXY) izleyen ayda ortalama %2 ila %3 d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski de\u011ferlendirirken prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131 Sinyalleri ve \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan FX \u0130\u015flem Senaryolar\u0131<\/h3>\n

BLS\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bordro revizyonunda bug\u00fcn beklenen 185 binlik yukar\u0131 d\u00fczeltme, Mart 2026\u2019ya kadar olan d\u00f6nemde tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tabloya i\u015faret etse de, mevcut i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ivmesi belirgin bi\u00e7imde yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Son haftalarda haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 235 bin civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, yaz sonras\u0131 i\u015fe al\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Yumu\u015fak ekonomik verilerin Fed\u2019i daha destekleyici bir duru\u015fa itece\u011fi beklentisiyle EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY paritesinde de 160,00 diren\u00e7 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu psikolojik bariyer tarihsel olarak, \u00f6nceki kur s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 9,8 trilyon yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli piyasa i\u015flemlerine benzer \u015fekilde, yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahale beklentisini art\u0131rma e\u011filiminde. Eyl\u00fcl FOMC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin gerilemesi halinde USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken EUR\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131, USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 test ediyor: e\u015fik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa oynakl\u0131k artabilir. Piyasalar g\u00fcvercin Fed\u2019i fiyatl\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler BLS bordro revizyonunda. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t