G10 Para Birimleri, Geli\u015fen Piyasa Hareketleri, Hisseler ve Emtialar<\/p>\n
G10 FX, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Kanada dolar\u0131, ABD\u2013Kanada ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,65 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ge\u00e7irirken, Avustralya dolar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (hatta en erken gelecek ay) fiyatlamas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,40 y\u00fckseldi. Yen, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 geriledi; ABD dolar\u0131 Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 159,70 JPY\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (ge\u00e7en haftaki m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 zirve 159,80 JPY civar\u0131). Avrupa\u2019da euro, 1,1710 dolar civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7ten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcz\u00fcld\u00fc ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131 olan 1,1635 dolar civar\u0131nda tutundu; sterlin 1,3570 dolar civar\u0131ndan 1,36 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparland\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 1,3600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda yatayla\u015ft\u0131. USD\/CAD 1,3860 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; 1,3875 seviyesinde vadesi dolan 400 milyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde opsiyon bulunuyor. AUD\/USD ise haziran sonundan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6865 dolardan 0,7200 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine uzand\u0131; erken may\u0131staki zirve 0,7280 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Parite bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,35 art\u0131da; bu, art arda be\u015finci haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f ve son dokuz haftan\u0131n sekizinci kazanc\u0131.<\/p>\n
GOP cephesinde USD\/MXN alt\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi olan 16,9965 civar\u0131na dokundu ve 16,9590\u201316,9825 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. USD\/CNH yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,7130\u20136,7265 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131; ge\u00e7en hafta 7,7210 civar\u0131nda kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. PBOC fixingi 6,7811 CNY olarak belirledi (\u00f6nceki 6,7829 ve 6,7817). USD\/INR iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 95,3850 civar\u0131nda yapt\u0131; b\u00f6ylece rupi \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n ilk haftal\u0131k kazanc\u0131na y\u00f6neldi. Asya-Pasifik genelinde hisseler y\u00fckseldi, ancak \u00c7in ve G\u00fcney Kore geride kald\u0131; Avrupa Stoxx 600 %0,5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde prim yapt\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi d\u00fcn 3 bp y\u00fckseldi ancak haftal\u0131k bazda 1 bp\u2019den biraz fazla ekside; Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi, Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve zay\u0131f 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi sonras\u0131 4 bp\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerinde artt\u0131. Alt\u0131n 4.566 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 dolar toparland\u0131 ve 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu; ge\u00e7en haftaki kapan\u0131\u015f 4.603 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 70 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine, neredeyse 71 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k 69 dolard\u0131). Ekim vadeli WTI, ge\u00e7en hafta 87 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 82,55\u201383,80 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda Mart 2026 i\u00e7in benchmark istihdam revizyonlar\u0131, Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini (y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3,4; 2025 4. \u00e7eyrekte yakla\u015f\u0131k -%1 ve 2026 1. \u00e7eyrekte -%0,1\u2019in biraz \u00fczeri sonras\u0131) ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n temmuz ay\u0131 tak\u0131m tezg\u00e2h\u0131 sipari\u015fleri (%50,4 y\u0131ll\u0131k; i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f sipari\u015fler %50\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerinde) yer al\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7 sipari\u015fler temmuzda, hazirandaki +%28 sonras\u0131 %8,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; d\u0131\u015f sipari\u015fler +%10,4 sonras\u0131 %3,8 geriledi. \u0130\u015fsizlik %2,5\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e inerken Tokyo T\u00dcFE man\u015fet %1,9, \u00e7ekirdek %1,8 oldu. Swaplar BOJ\u2019un gelecek ay faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve 4\u00c7 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 bp (temmuz sonundaki ~4 bp\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali ise ge\u00e7en hafta sonu neredeyse %85\u2019ten %50\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Japonya\u2019da merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 kritik bir d\u00f6nemece girerken d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye (forward guidance) \u015f\u00fcpheci yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ile Hazine Bakan\u0131 Bessent\u2019in agresif tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, faizler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Jackson Hole konu\u015fmalar\u0131 S&P 500\u2019de ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,9\u2019luk harekete ve G10 para birimlerinde belirgin dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; bu da dolar pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 gecikmeden hedge etmeye haz\u0131r olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in, paritenin y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sark\u0131yor ve 1,1635 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 zar zor tutuyor; g\u00fcnl\u00fck momentum g\u00f6stergeleri ise yeni a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Parite bu kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na k\u0131rarsa, bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivmelenme g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Yen i\u00e7in al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da yen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yen 159,70 JPY civar\u0131nda tutunmakta zorlanm\u0131\u015f olsa da Japonya makro verileri g\u00f6rmezden gelinemeyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Swap piyasas\u0131 BOJ\u2019un gelecek ay faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini \u015fu anda %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay sonlar\u0131nda %40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu durum, carry trade\u2019in zaman i\u00e7inde sert bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, USD\/CAD call spread\u2019leri kullanarak Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Kanada ekonomisinin 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3,4 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma g\u00f6stermesi beklenmesine ra\u011fmen, t\u0131rmanan ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ve ABD tarifeleri tehdidi para birimi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 kuruyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak swap piyasas\u0131, BoC\u2019nin bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85\u2019ten %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sert \u015fekilde indirdi ve loonie\u2019yi k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131yla ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Para birimi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n en erken gelecek ay faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle art arda be\u015f haftad\u0131r y\u00fckseliyor ve 0,7200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu da Aussie\u2019yi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda G10 i\u00e7inde en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans sergileyen para birimi yap\u0131yor; sa\u011flam bir para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak emtia taraf\u0131nda, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmelerde uzun pozisyon biriktirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor ve art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kazanca ilerliyor; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n en uzun y\u00fckseli\u015f serisine e\u015fit. Tarihsel olarak de\u011ferli metaller, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ve hazine ile merkez bankas\u0131 yetkilileri aras\u0131nda kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde \u00f6zellikle iyi performans g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi G10 kur cephesinde bant hareketi s\u00fcrerken volatilite kap\u0131da: CAD ticaret gerilimiyle zay\u0131f, AUD RBA faiz beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, EUR kritik 1,1635 deste\u011finde. Alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t