Alt\u0131n, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek ABD enflasyon verilerinin Federal Rezerv\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. BEA verilerine g\u00f6re \u00e7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019te sabit kal\u0131rken, man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131. Verinin ard\u0131ndan CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %36\u2019dan %40\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret etti; bu tablo, getiri sa\u011flamayan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratma e\u011filiminde. Piyasalar \u015fimdi y\u00f6n i\u00e7in Jackson Hole Ekonomi Sempozyumu\u2019nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ise dengeleyici bir unsur sundu; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik umutlar, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Reuters, arabuluculardan gelen talebin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik \u015fefi Mohsen Rezaei\u2019nin Tahran\u2019\u0131n, b\u00f6lgede sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesi de dahil olmak \u00fczere g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ko\u015fullar\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Grafiklerde XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 4.760 dolar civar\u0131nda, destek ise 4.585 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.415, 4.375 ve 4.073,52 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n Jackson Hole sempozyumu \u00f6ncesinde 4.600 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son PCE enflasyon verisinin %3,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131, eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken; bug\u00fcn \u015fahin tonda bir konu\u015fma daha derin bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 4.585 dolardaki ilk destek seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde sert d\u00fczeltmeler ya\u015fayabilse de uzun vadeli talep son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalma e\u011filiminde. \u00d6rne\u011fin, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor; kurumlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 trend devam ediyor. Fiyat\u0131n daha da gerilemesi halinde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya yak\u0131n 4.375 dolar seviyesinde, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal talebin bu taban\u0131 savunaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki diplomatik \u00e7abalar ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015f\u0131r ve enerji-enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131rsa, alt\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin yeniden h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 65 ile sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir seviyede; bu da piyasan\u0131n hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken risk sermayesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in 4.760 dolardaki \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131 direncini hedefleyen bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ile para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 etkisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Ani teminat tamamlama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131plak (naked) k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, bunun yerine riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 spread stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Esnek bir duru\u015f, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde netle\u015fecek fiili politika patikas\u0131 daha belirgin h\u00e2le geldik\u00e7e pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ayarlanmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: XAU\/USD 4.600 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. PCE %3,3; FedWatch eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40. Jackson Hole kritik. Teknikte 4.585 destek, 4.760 diren\u00e7; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t