{"id":53347,"date":"2026-08-28T05:27:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T05:27:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-mudahale-etkisinin-azalmasi-ve-abd-japonya-faiz-farkinin-genislemesiyle-160-seviyesinin-altinda-dengeleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T05:27:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T05:27:19","slug":"usd-jpy-mudahale-etkisinin-azalmasi-ve-abd-japonya-faiz-farkinin-genislemesiyle-160-seviyesinin-altinda-dengeleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-mudahale-etkisinin-azalmasi-ve-abd-japonya-faiz-farkinin-genislemesiyle-160-seviyesinin-altinda-dengeleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, m\u00fcdahale etkisinin azalmas\u0131 ve ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesiyle 160 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda dengeleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti; 42 piplik bant i\u00e7inde %0,05 y\u00fckselerek m\u00fctevaz\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n be\u015finci seans\u0131n\u0131 uzatt\u0131. Parite, 160,00 seviyesinde bulunan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, y\u00fckselen 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 158,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda konumlan\u0131yor; g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI 69\u2019a yak\u0131n ve y\u00fckseli\u015fteydi.<\/p>\n

Temmuz sonlar\u0131nda parite 164,00\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na kadar t\u0131rmand\u0131; ancak 1998\u2019den bu yana ilk kez yap\u0131lan ortak Tokyo\u2013Washington operasyonu iki seans i\u00e7inde kuru 155,00 b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7ekti. Tek seansta rekor 8,45 trilyon yen kullan\u0131ld\u0131, bunu yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,3 trilyon yen daha izledi; d\u00f6rt hafta sonra spot kur, bu hareketin orta noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00fczine pip mesafede. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %1,00 iken ABD hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75; fark yakla\u015f\u0131k iki bu\u00e7uk puan ve eyl\u00fclde %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f dahi fark\u0131 iki puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde b\u0131rak\u0131r. Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) temmuzda %1,6\u2019dan %1,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek %1,7 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131; ulusal \u00e7ekirdek %2 hedefe kar\u015f\u0131 %1,8 oldu; piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc \u015fimdi Tokyo \u00e7ekirde\u011fini %1,7 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Eyl\u00fcl fiyatlamas\u0131 7 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k %65\u2019ten %80\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na y\u00fckseldi; Tokyo verileri 23:30 GMT\u2019de gelecek (man\u015fet ile g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00f6nceki %2, \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6nceki %1,9) ve temmuz i\u015fsizlik %2,5 ile de\u011fi\u015fmeden bekleniyor; T\u00dcFE baz y\u0131l\u0131 2020\u2019den 2025\u2019e kayd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. ABD taraf\u0131nda cuma 14:00 GMT\u2019de Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k benchmark revizyonu ile birlikte \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 13:45 GMT\u2019de Chicago PMI\u2019n\u0131n 57,6\u2019dan 57\u2019ye gerilemesi bekleniyor. Japonya perakende ticaret verisi pazar 23:50 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak (y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,5, ayl\u0131k -%4,1\u2019den). Gelecek hafta ABD\u2019de sal\u0131 14:00 GMT\u2019de imalat endeksi 55,6\u2019dan 55,3\u2019e; a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 7,359 milyon; \u00e7ar\u015famba 12:15 GMT\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 44 bin; hizmet endeksi 54,1; cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam -23 bin sonras\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik %4,1 ile, 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde izlenecek.<\/p>\n

Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Son M\u00fcdahaleler<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu izliyoruz; parite, belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lma momentumu olmaks\u0131z\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansta kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f sergiliyor. Kur, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 160,00\u2019daki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, y\u00fckselen 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 158,00 civar\u0131nda daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da rahat bir konumda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 69\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesinde 160,00 band\u0131na do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli son bir iti\u015f bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00fczeltme, Tokyo ve Washington\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ortak m\u00fcdahalelerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi ve 2024\u2019teki tarihi 9,8 trilyon yenlik piyasa kurtarma hamlesini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Pariteyi 155,00\u2019a itmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce 8,45 trilyon yen, ard\u0131ndan 5,3 trilyon yen daha harcanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, piyasa bu kay\u0131plar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden geri ald\u0131. Bunu, altta yatan makroekonomik belirleyiciler de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Getiri Farklar\u0131, Mali Bask\u0131lar ve \u0130\u015flem Kurgular\u0131<\/h3>\n

Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, geni\u015f getiri fark\u0131: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n %1,00\u2019lik politika faizi, ABD\u2019nin %3,50\u2013%3,75 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na k\u0131yasla olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 eyl\u00fclde faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltse bile, geride kalan iki puanl\u0131k fark carry trade\u2019i y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu arada, vergi indirimleri ve kamu te\u015fvikleriyle a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yenin uzun vadeli de\u011ferini bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Siyasi bask\u0131 da art\u0131yor; Tokyo\u2019nun \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda %1,9\u2019da seyretmesine ra\u011fmen eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %65\u2019ten neredeyse %80\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Mevcut enflasyonun \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131f kur \u00fczerinden ithal edilmesi nedeniyle, merkez bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon ilac\u0131ndan ziyade kura y\u00f6nelik bir savunma arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam verileri ve 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131na giderken y\u00fcksek volatilite bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

160,00 diren\u00e7 seviyesi korunmaya devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA yak\u0131n\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fa konu edilmesi, 159,00 ve 158,00\u2019deki destek basamaklar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen cazip bir risk-getiri kurgusu sunuyor. 160,00 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek herhangi bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacak; oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 160,50 ve 161,50\u2019deki daha y\u00fcksek hedeflere kayd\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 159,50 alt\u0131nda be\u015finci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseliyor: 160,00\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015fen 50G EMA diren\u00e7, 158,00\u2019de 200G EMA destek. M\u00fcdahale etkisi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor; getiri fark\u0131, CPI\/Jackson Hole ve BoJ \u00f6ncesi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t