\u00c7in, diplomatik kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutarken ABD\u2019nin yeni B\u00f6l\u00fcm 301 tarifeleri ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7in ithalat\u0131na ilave %7,5 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bildirilen ABD\u2019ye \u201ckesin surette kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m\u0131n, 16 ekonomiyi kapsayan ve iddia edilen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kapasiteye odaklanan bir B\u00f6l\u00fcm 301 soru\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi\u011fi, hamlenin ise tek tarafl\u0131 ve korumac\u0131 nitelikte oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Pekin, ABD\u2019nin atabilece\u011fi ilave ad\u0131mlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini belirtirken, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u201cgerekli tedbirleri\u201d alma hakk\u0131n\u0131 sakl\u0131 tuttu. Buna paralel olarak D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin bu y\u0131l ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde liderler d\u00fczeyinde olas\u0131 bir temas\u0131n d\u00fczenlemeleri konusunda temas halinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ticaret riskleri artarken dahi diyalog i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6nerilen %7,5\u2019lik ABD tarifelerine direnmesi ve Trump-Xi zirvesine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 2018 ve 2019\u2019daki gerilimlerin zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, tarife tehditleri t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) d\u00fczenli olarak 25\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rard\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara bu diplomatik sinyalleri yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira s\u00f6ylemdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fiklikler dahi d\u00f6viz ve hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, B\u00f6l\u00fcm 301 geli\u015fmelerine y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren offshore Yuan (USD\/CNH) \u00fczerinde uzun volatilite stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6nceki tarife turlar\u0131nda Yuan, 7,20 ve 7,30 gibi kritik psikolojik seviyelerin \u00f6tesinde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 halinde benzer bir bask\u0131n\u0131n birikebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinde ani bir kopu\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi sunar.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde de, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gibi likit ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce b\u00fcy\u00fck tarife art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla tehdit etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde, \u015eanghay Bile\u015fik Endeksi 2018\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemi\u015fti; bu da s\u00f6z konusu varl\u0131klar\u0131n politika \u015foklar\u0131na ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, ikili zirve \u00f6ncesinde ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almalar\u0131n\u0131 veya ay\u0131 put spreadleri kurmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, emtia t\u00fcrevlerini\u2014\u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel ticaret sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na proxy olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bak\u0131r gibi sanayi metalleri\u2014g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f tarife anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131nda, piyasalar daha yava\u015f imalat faaliyeti fiyatlarken bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde %10\u2019u a\u015fan ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Tarife uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi halinde olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in sanayi metallerinde taktiksel k\u0131sa pozisyonlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ticarette yeni f\u0131rt\u0131na kap\u0131da: \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 %7,5\u2019lik B\u00f6l\u00fcm 301 tarifelerine kesin kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p misilleme sinyali verdi. Zirve diplomasisi s\u00fcrerken VIX, USD\/CNH, FXI ve bak\u0131rda volatilite f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50308,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t