GBP\/USD Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Yakla\u015fan G\u00fcndem<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3600 civar\u0131nda seyretti; %0,05 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 piplik dar bir bantta kald\u0131 ve haftan\u0131n 1,3700\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndaki zirvesinin alt\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seans\u0131n\u0131 uzatt\u0131. Temmuz sonundan bu yana parite 1,3300 civar\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,2 y\u00fckselirken, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndan 99,00\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,3 geriledi. Sterlin, 1,3450 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bir sentten fazla \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 1,3400 civar\u0131nda; g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI okumalar\u0131 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrettikten sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Banka Faizi %3,75 seviyesinde; ABD hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50-%3,75. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha \u00f6nceki 1,3300 seviyesine k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Temmuz enflasyonu %2,9; hizmet enflasyonu %3,4; \u00fcretici girdi fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi ve daha yumu\u015fak istihdam verileriyle birlikte izlendi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD g\u00fcndemine kay\u0131yor: Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Jackson Hole\u2019da 14:00 GMT\u2019de soru-cevap olmaks\u0131z\u0131n haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f bir metinle konu\u015facak; bunun yan\u0131nda kurulu\u015f (establishment) anketine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k baz revizyon da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT\u2019de; beklenti 57 (\u00f6nceki 57,6). A\u011fustos nihai Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 51, beklentiler 50,6 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,3 ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ile \u00f6nc\u00fc veriye g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de bir sonraki politika karar\u0131 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de; ancak Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (MPR) oturumlar\u0131 gelecek per\u015fembe. Ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 08:50 GMT\u2019de konu\u015facak; A\u011fustos bordro verisi \u00f6ncesinde (\u00f6nceki -23 bin) i\u015fsizlik %4,1. Reel faiz fark\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 bp olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor; uzun vadeli gilt getirileri %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler ABD tahvillerine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 35-45 bp primli. Maliye taraf\u0131nda odak 28 Ekim\u2019e \u00e7evriliyor; y\u0131l\u0131n ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda bor\u00e7lanma resmi tahminin birka\u00e7 milyar sterlin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve son ay verisi beklenmedik bir a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi. Teknik seviyeler 1,3700 ard\u0131ndan 1,3750 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7; 1,3550 ve 1,3500\u2019de destek i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,3500 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019y\u0131 tekrar g\u00fcndeme getirecektir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev Pozisyonlanma ve Taktik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3600 civar\u0131nda oyalanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ancak t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Zira g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI\u2019\u0131n 90 \u00fczerinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131vr\u0131lmas\u0131, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yoruldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 1,3300\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen son y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u201corganik\u201d bir \u0130ngiltere g\u00fcc\u00fcnden ziyade, Dolar\u2019daki geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (DXY\u2019nin 99,00 alt\u0131na inmesi) etkisiyle \u015fekillendi. Tarihsel olarak momentum g\u00f6stergeleri bu kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, 1,3450 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya do\u011fru bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde artar.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin nominal getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131ktan \u00e7ok bir risk primi oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirileri %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalarak ABD tahvillerini yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puan geride b\u0131raksa da bu fark, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin y\u00fckselen kamu borcuna y\u00f6nelik derin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; kamu borcu h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda GSYH\u2019nin %100\u2019\u00fc civar\u0131nda izleniyor. Hem \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 hem de Fed politika faizlerini %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda tutarken, sterlin i\u00e7in temel faiz deste\u011fi ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in as\u0131l s\u0131nav, Ekim\u2019deki mali b\u00fct\u00e7e ile gelecek; zira \u0130ngiltere kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 \u015fimdiden resmi hedefleri milyarlarca sterlin a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu yap\u0131sal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6neriyoruz; vade primlerinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fiyle desteklenen para birimleri, mali hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassast\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, GBP\/USD\u2019de Ekim vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 ve 1,3400 seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosunu hedeflemeyi de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 1,3500 destek ile 1,3700 diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Gelecek haftaki y\u00fcksek riskli ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u2014per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere MPR oturumlar\u0131 ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u2014ani oynakl\u0131k yaratacakt\u0131r. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,3500 alt\u0131na gelmesi halinde, iyimser e\u011filimi h\u0131zla terk etmeli ve daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin ralli sonras\u0131 1,3600\u2019de soluklan\u0131yor: Stokastik RSI d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc d\u00fczeltme sinyali. G\u00f6zler Jackson Hole ve ABD verilerinde. 1,3700 diren\u00e7, 1,3500 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya ini\u015f; opsiyonla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t