Meksika, Peru ve \u015eili \u2014 birlikte k\u00fcresel maden arz\u0131n\u0131n %40,9\u2019unu olu\u015fturuyor \u2014 her biri, fiyatla ilgisi olmayan nedenlerle plan\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fcretimi bildirdi. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 68,70 dolar, alt\u0131n 4.587,10 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rasyosu 66,8\u2019de kald\u0131. Metal y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %77 y\u00fckseldi, ancak 29 Ocak g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %44 alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Meksika\u2019da Endeavour Silver\u2019\u0131n Jalisco\u2019daki Terronera madeni, 12\u201323 A\u011fustos tarihlerinde bir Ejido toplulu\u011funun yol kapatmas\u0131 (abluka) nedeniyle durdu; 24 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yeniden devreye girdi. Bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ertelenmi\u015f \u00fcretime i\u015faret ediyor. Terronera, 2\u00c7\u2019de ton ba\u015f\u0131na 126 gram ten\u00f6rle 175.729 ton i\u015fledi; %85,4 geri kazan\u0131mla 608.347 ons \u00fcretti; bu da g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 6.685 onsa denk geliyor. Duru\u015f, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,08 milyon ons \u00fcretime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Terronera 1 Ekim 2025\u2019te ticari \u00fcretime ge\u00e7ti ve Endeavour\u2019\u0131n 2\u00c7 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fcretiminin %31\u2019ini sa\u011flad\u0131; Meksika 2025\u2019te 172,9 milyon ons \u00fcretti; bu da k\u00fcresel toplam\u0131n %20,4\u2019\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Peru\u2019nun istatistik kurumu, metalik madencilik alt sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,52 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %9,0 gerilerken \u00e7inkonun %25,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Kur\u015fun %12,5, bak\u0131r %4,7 ve alt\u0131n %1,1 azald\u0131. Peru 2025\u2019te 130,6 milyon ons \u00fcretti (d\u00fcnya arz\u0131n\u0131n %15,4\u2019\u00fc) ve ayl\u0131k ortalama 10,88 milyon ons ko\u015fu h\u0131z\u0131nda, %9,0\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ayl\u0131k e\u015fde\u011fer bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,98 milyon onsa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. \u015eili\u2019de Antofagasta, Los Pelambres\u2019teki ya\u011fmur ve kar nedeniyle 2026 bak\u0131r \u00fcretim beklentisini 650.000\u2013700.000 tondan 625.000\u2013655.000 tona indirdi; orta nokta baz\u0131nda kesinti %5,2 oldu. Kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 hacmi yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f milyon metrek\u00fcp olarak belirtildi. Antofagasta\u2019n\u0131n gelir karmas\u0131 %77 bak\u0131r, %10 molibden, %9 alt\u0131n ve %3 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ften olu\u015ftu; ilk yar\u0131 gelirleri %18 art\u0131\u015fla 4.479,0 milyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve yan \u00fcr\u00fcn kredileri sayesinde net nakit maliyetleri %8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle libre ba\u015f\u0131na 1,22 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7 geli\u015fme toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1 milyon onsa ula\u015ft\u0131: Peru\u2019nun 0,98 milyon ons ayl\u0131k e\u015fde\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fimi ile Terronera\u2019n\u0131n 0,08 milyon ons etkisi birle\u015ftirildi\u011finde; bu rakam, Metals Focus ve Silver Institute\u2019un 2026 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 46,3 milyon ons a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. World Silver Survey 2026, 2025\u2019te arz\u0131n %26\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n birincil (primary) g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f madenlerinden geldi\u011fini; birincil olmayan \u00fcretimin 625,5 milyon ons oldu\u011funu belirtti. Maden arz\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 844,1 milyon ons, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ise 846,6 milyon ons oldu\u011fu tahmin edildi. Metals Focus ve Silver Institute, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2025 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 40,03 dolar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (long call) ve bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadlerine (bull-call spread) odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 68,70 dolar, alt\u0131n 4.587,10 dolar seviyesindeyken alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rasyosu cazip bir seviye olan 66,8\u2019de. Bu oran tarihsel olarak, \u00f6zellikle fiziki piyasadaki kronik arz yetersizli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131n momentumunu yakalama e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 so\u011futacak ani bir yeni madencilik \u00fcretimi dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemeyece\u011fini kabul etmek gerekiyor. Sekt\u00f6rden gelen son veriler, \u00f6zellikle son y\u0131llarda k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte rekor 232 milyon ons t\u00fcketen g\u00fcne\u015f fotovoltaik (PV) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde sanayi talebinin, mevcut fiziki envanteri kilitlemeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc bak\u0131r, \u00e7inko ve alt\u0131n \u00fcretiminin yan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olarak \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselse bile \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretimi kolayca art\u0131rmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Meksika, Peru ve \u015eili\u2019deki son arz kesintileri; yerel ablukalar ve sert hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 gibi fiyat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fakt\u00f6rlere kar\u015f\u0131 fiziki piyasan\u0131n ne kadar k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Peru\u2019da enerji ve madenler bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, polimetalik \u00fcretimin geride kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yak\u0131n zamanda teyit etti; bu durum, t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131n dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 e\u015flik eden (companion) g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f arz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, vadeli kontratlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de\u011fil, olduk\u00e7a cazip al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu esnek olmayan (inelastik) arz dinamiklerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan vadeli i\u015flem yerine opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131ymetli maden opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00e7\u0131plak k\u0131sa al\u0131m opsiyonu (naked short call) gibi prim satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejiler son derece riskli olabilir. Bunun yerine, uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak, sanayi al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fiziki metale eri\u015fmek i\u00e7in acele etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l 46,3 milyon ons a\u00e7\u0131k vermesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi \u2014 \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 y\u0131l arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor \u2014 fiyatlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal taban\u0131n son derece sa\u011flam oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Sanayi kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 fiziki arz\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcvenceye al\u0131rken, borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve borsa stoklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu piyasada k\u0131sa pozisyon almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, temellerin besledi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (squeeze) riskine maruz kalabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: K\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %40,9\u2019unu \u00fcreten Meksika-Peru-\u015eili\u2019de fiyat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 68,70$, rasyo 66,8; opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f kurgusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t