USD\/CNH, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye paralel olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, hareket s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Parite en son 6,7225 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin oldu\u011fu izleniyor. RSI, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye y\u00f6nelik erken sinyaller vererek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fine alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7ler 6,7410 (21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO) ve ard\u0131ndan 6,75 seviyesinde izlenirken, destekler 6,72 ve 6,70\u2019te bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli makro s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicilerin \u00f6tesinde, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeniden artan bask\u0131s\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olmas\u0131 nedeniyle belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6nlemlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7inli finansal kurumlar\u0131 do\u011frudan hedeflememesi durumunda k\u0131sa vadeli FX etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak \u00c7inli \u015firketlere veya bankalara y\u00f6nelik ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, RMB\u2019de iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, PBoC, RMB\u2019de \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir de\u011ferlenme patikas\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; beklentilere k\u0131yasla belirgin bir \u201cfixing\u201d fark\u0131 da RMB g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na izin verme konusunda temkinli duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki toparlanma ile birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CNH paritesinde iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 6,7225 seviyesinin etraf\u0131nda seyretmesi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 6,70\u20136,72 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli olarak olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, son d\u00f6nemde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin 4,1% civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle belirginle\u015fen ABD Hazine getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimiyle uyumlu olup, dolar i\u00e7in temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00e2r realizasyonunun 6,7410\u20136,7500 band\u0131ndaki ilk diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden toparlanmaya y\u00f6nelik temkinli sinyaller \u00fcretmesi nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir teknik tepki bekliyoruz. Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) Renminbi\u2019de kademeli ve kontroll\u00fc de\u011ferlenme tercihine i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin, \u00f6zellikle de g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyon varil ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen \u0130ran ham petrol ihracat\u0131 ekseninde, yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Bu i\u015flemlerde rol alan \u00c7inli finansal kurumlar\u0131 hedefleyebilecek ABD ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, oynakl\u0131kta ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketleri yakalamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar endeksi ve ABD tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fle USD\/CNH 6,7225\u2019te s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131; RSI tepkiye i\u015faret. Destek 6,70\u20136,72, diren\u00e7 6,7410\/6,75. \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve PBoC temkini oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t