ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 99,17\u2019deki direnci test etmesiyle son d\u00f6nemdeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 konsolide etti\u011fi ifade edildi. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken, Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yapay zek\u00e2 capex\u2019i ba\u011flam\u0131nda Wall Street\u2019in gelir ve sat\u0131\u015f beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verileri, man\u015fet PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun %0,1\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ve hazirandaki %-0,1\u2019in ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k oran, ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste %3,7\u2019de kalarak %3,6\u2019l\u0131k beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7ekirdek PCE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ile beklentilere paralel geldi, hazirandaki %0,1\u2019den y\u00fckseldi ve ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131; Dallas Fed k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3\u2019te, Cleveland Fed medyan\u0131 ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7\u2019de kald\u0131. Reel ki\u015fisel harcamalar\u0131n duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilirken, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %3,75\u20134,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na %36 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfetti ve 12 ayda toplam 40 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; Jackson Hole sempozyumu bug\u00fcn ba\u015fl\u0131yor, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ise yar\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 99,17 seviyesindeki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama direncini test etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Man\u015fet PCE enflasyonunun %3,7\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalmas\u0131 ve reel t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n duraksamas\u0131yla birlikte, ABD\u2019de ekonomik momentum sessizce so\u011fuyor. Bu tablo, dolar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki konsolidasyonunun k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir zemine oturdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir manevra alan\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, dolar\u0131n ani ve sert bir g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlamaya olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paraya yak\u0131n (ATM\u2019ye yak\u0131n) DXY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 2023 sonundaki politika ekseni de\u011fi\u015fimi gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa kaymalar\u0131\u2014yaln\u0131zca iki ayda DXY\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019y\u0131 silmi\u015fti\u2014\u015fahin beklentiler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde dolar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 gerileyebilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %36 g\u00f6sterirken y\u0131l geneline ili\u015fkin toplam s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 m\u00fctevaz\u0131 40 baz puan seviyesinde. Piyasan\u0131n geriye kalan bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kademeli \u015fekilde fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Durgun perakende ve reel harcama verilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu i\u015flemi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole Ekonomi Sempozyumu bug\u00fcn ba\u015flarken, a\u00e7\u0131k politika sinyalleri belirsiz kalsa bile k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131 ve teknoloji hisselerine ili\u015fkin havan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ani fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan yararlanmak \u00fczere ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda opsiyon straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00fcncellemelerine piyasalar\u0131n beklenmedik tepkilerinden do\u011fabilecek hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY 99,17\u2019de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dirence yasland\u0131: Dolar kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan. PCE %3,7\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, reel harcamalar durdu. Fed\u2019de art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %36; Jackson Hole ve Warsh konu\u015fmas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Nvidia g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Brent 90 alt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t