ABD toptan sat\u0131\u015f stoklar\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da %1,3 artt\u0131; bu oran %0,1\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Sonu\u00e7, ay boyunca toptan sat\u0131\u015f sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde stok birikiminin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz verisi, beklentilere k\u0131yasla belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprize i\u015faret ediyor ve piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir stok birikimi ima ediyor. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kalem baz\u0131nda (dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ya da dayan\u0131ks\u0131z mallarda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131p yo\u011funla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi) itici unsurlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131 b\u00fcltende yer almad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Temmuz\u2019da ABD toptan sat\u0131\u015f stoklar\u0131nda %1,3\u2019l\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6rd\u00fck; %0,1 gibi \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir beklentiye k\u0131yasla bu art\u0131\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekici. Bu beklenmedik birikim, mallar\u0131n t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n alma h\u0131z\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde depolarda birikti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7en stoklar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda imalat faaliyetinde ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde belirgin bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalar (consumer discretionary) ve perakende ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu alarak daha defansif pozisyonlara h\u0131zl\u0131ca y\u00f6nelmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2022 ortas\u0131ndaki stok fazlas\u0131 d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fck perakendecilerin marjlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f, S&P Retail Select Industry Index birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 gerilemi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde Target ve Walmart\u2019\u0131n ani k\u00e2r uyar\u0131lar\u0131, bug\u00fcn de fazla stokun \u00f6zsermaye de\u011ferlemelerini ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu stok y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, ekonomik durgunlu\u011fu \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerine daha h\u0131zl\u0131 gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da art\u0131r\u0131yor. Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya TLT gibi uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde, sert stok art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n daha so\u011fuk bir ekonomiyi fiyatlamas\u0131yla 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Sanayi talebinin ham madde taraf\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine de haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu e\u011filimi, ham petrol ve bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put opsiyonu alarak de\u011ferlendirebilir; tarihsel olarak imalat aktivitesi yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu emtialar geri \u00e7ekilme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bu ani makroekonomik de\u011fi\u015fime uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde kalmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz veri alarm\u0131: ABD toptan stoklar\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da %1,3 artt\u0131, beklenti %0,1\u2019di. H\u0131zlanan stok birikimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131 sinyali; tahvil long, perakendede defansif, emtiada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t