ABD dolar\u0131, sakin piyasalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir e\u011filimle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; y\u00fckselen ABD faizleri ve k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekledi. BOJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gelecek ay olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesine ra\u011fmen dolar\/yen paritesi yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; fiyatlaman\u0131n Japon faizlerinden ziyade ABD tahvil getirilerini daha yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G10\u2019da euro, 1,1640 dolar civar\u0131nda be\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi ve bu seviyenin alt\u0131n\u0131 yoklad\u0131; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 1,1635 dolar civar\u0131nda, %61,8 d\u00fczeltme seviyesi ise 1,1625 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda bulunuyor. Dolar\/yen, son zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti; ~159,50 JPY\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan JPY159,30 civar\u0131nda alt\u0131 seans\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. M\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 zirve 18 A\u011fustos\u2019ta JPY159,80\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, ge\u00e7en temmuzdaki m\u00fcdahaleden bu yana ilk kez 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sterlin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3585 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na indi ve 1,3570 dolara do\u011fru geni\u015fledi; bug\u00fcn 1,3550 dolarda 840 milyon GBP nominal de\u011ferinde opsiyon vadesi bulunuyor. Bir sonraki destek b\u00f6lgesi 1,3335\u20131,3360 dolar olarak izleniyor. Kanada dolar\u0131 haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 geriledi; Kanada\u2013ABD iki y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n 128 bp\u2019ye a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,3895\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 ~1,3910, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ~1,3920 ve 1,3950\u20131,3960 band\u0131nda bulunuyor. Avustralya dolar\u0131 0,7190 dolara yak\u0131n zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle 0,7165 dolara (be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama) geriledi; vadeli fiyatlama gelecek ay i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta sonundaki %10\u2019un biraz \u00fczerinden neredeyse %50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\u0131\u015f ise, \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 fiyatlamaya k\u0131yasla art\u0131k tamamen fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
GO\u00dc taraf\u0131nda dolar, MXN16,99\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken MXN17,00 seviyesi ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan MXN17,08\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na denk geldi; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama MXN17,10 civar\u0131nda. 17,1365 seviyesi ise temmuz sonundaki ~17,54 zirvesinden ba\u015flayan hareketin %38,2 d\u00fczeltmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 3,5 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez CNH6,72\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kur CNH6,7225 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131 ve PBOC\u2019nin fixingi 6,7829\u2019dan CNY6,7840\u2019a y\u00fckseltmesiyle CNH6,72 \u00e7evresinde dalgaland\u0131. Rupi, tatil sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc INR95,39\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelerden bug\u00fcn 95,56\u2019ya geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zirvesi 95,76\u2019n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerindeydi. Di\u011fer tarafta G\u00fcney Kore Kospi, art arda iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla politika faizinin %3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %1,5 y\u00fckseldi; Avrupa Stoxx 600 %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Nasdaq vadeli i\u015flemleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckselirken S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri bunun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az artt\u0131. G\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri d\u00fcn 3\u20135 bp y\u00fckseldi; bug\u00fcn Avrupa 1\u20132 bp eklerken ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2 bp art\u0131\u015fla %6,67\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131n %1,3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 4 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine, 4.579 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na indi; d\u00fczeltme hedefi 4.555 dolar civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, 70 dolara yak\u0131n seviyede zorland\u0131ktan sonra sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc 67,45\u201369,95 dolar band\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ekim vadeli WTI, 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndan 83,30 dolara toparlan\u0131p 82 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti; ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zirvesi 87,70 dolara yak\u0131nd\u0131. ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, 2026 ilk yar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 534,8 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu; 2025 ilk yar\u0131da 716,6 milyar dolar ve 2024 ilk yar\u0131da 558 milyar dolar seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. 2\u00c7\u2019de net ihracat GSYH\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcrken stoklar 0,7 puan negatif katk\u0131 yapt\u0131; i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndaki momentum, a\u011fustos ortas\u0131nda d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 204 bin seviyesine i\u015faret etti. Avrupa\u2019da Euro B\u00f6lgesi M3, temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (haziran: %3,3); hanehalk\u0131 kredileri %3,1\u2019e (\u00f6nceki: %3,0) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015firketlere kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %4,4\u2019e (\u00f6nceki: %4,0) h\u0131zland\u0131. Avustralya verileri hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda %1,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (beklenti: %0,3) g\u00f6sterdi; haziran verisi %0,8\u2019den %1,0\u2019a revize edildi. \u00d6zel sermaye harcamalar\u0131 2\u00c7\u2019de %3,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (beklenti: %0,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f); 1\u00c7 ise %6,5\u2019ten %6,9\u2019a revize edildi. Japon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 1,98 trilyon JPY tutar\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 tahvil ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 870 milyar JPY tutar\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 hisse satt\u0131; her ikisi de \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n ilk sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi k\u00e2rlar\u0131 temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %11,2 artt\u0131 (haziran: %15,1). Meksika, 2026 ilk yar\u0131da 9,86 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verdi (bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce: 1,43 milyar dolar); ihracat %10,7, ithalat %7,7 artt\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, gelecek y\u0131l T\u00dcFE \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc %2,1\u2019den %2\u2019ye indirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD ile ticaret gerilimlerinin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde konumlanman\u0131n, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerine g\u00f6re iskontosunun 128 baz puana geni\u015flemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,3950\u20131,3960 band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2018\u2019deki tarife anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, ithalat yasaklar\u0131 tehdidi g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferinin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %4\u2013%5 gerileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %6,67\u2019ye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n BOJ\u2019u zorlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, JPY 159,80 direncinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek ve ABD getirilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir makro zeminde tek tarafl\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, 1,3570 dolara do\u011fru kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletirken 1,3550 dolarda \u00f6nemli opsiyon vadeleri k\u0131sa vadede fiyat\u0131n bu seviyeye \u201cm\u0131knat\u0131s\u201d etkisiyle y\u00f6nelmesine neden olabilir. GBP\/USD paritesinde, 1,3335\u20131,3360 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bir sonraki teknik destek b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6nceki sert trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerine ili\u015fkin veriler, kritik d\u00fczeltme seviyeleri k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif uzun pozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin (long unwinding) s\u0131kl\u0131kla h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Euro, 1,1635 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak momentumda de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor; bunun yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bir sonraki destek alan\u0131 olan 1,1625 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemek \u00fczere EUR\/USD\u2019de paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, daha geni\u015f bir ABD dolar\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda euro 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 koruyamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn ilave %1,5\u2013%2 devam etmesi s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avustralya dolar\u0131, temmuzda hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %1,1 art\u0131\u015f ve y\u00fcksek gelen T\u00dcFE verileriyle 0,7165 dolar civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n gelecek ay i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %10\u2019dan %50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesiyle AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama (hawkish repricing) d\u00f6nemleri, k\u0131sa vadede Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesine d\u00fczenli olarak zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n %1,3\u2019l\u00fck sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.579 dolara gerilemesi ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 70 dolar civar\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131, metallerde son rallinin ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut uzun metal pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.555 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini hedefleyen ay\u0131 put spread stratejileriyle korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi\u011finde de\u011ferli metallerin genellikle %3\u2013%5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar, y\u00fckselen ABD faizleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken G10\u2019da euro 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor; yen bask\u0131da, sterlin ve CAD geriliyor. GO\u00dc\u2019de peso k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Opsiyon stratejileri: USD\/CAD, USD\/JPY call; EUR\/GBP put; metalde koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t