Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.643 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra erken saatlerdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve 4.589 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 4.697 dolarla 14 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi test etmi\u015fti; ancak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyon verileri, PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla birlikte, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisine yaslanmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlan\u0131rken, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma \u00f6zelli\u011fine ra\u011fmen Alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerinin getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olarak cazibesini azaltmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,40 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Son PCE, T\u00dcFE (CPI) ve \u00dcFE (PPI) verileri, enflasyonun art\u0131k keskin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede hemen bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fi beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %62\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Haftal\u0131k ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de Dolar\u2019a destek verdi: \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 203 bin ile 208 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; \u00f6nceki veri 206 binden 207 bine revize edildi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,22 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek, ABD Hazine\u2019sinin uzun vadeli k\u0131ymetlerde geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 art\u0131rma planlar\u0131yla olu\u015fan bask\u0131 sonras\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Odak, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrilirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gemi trafi\u011finin hen\u00fcz normale d\u00f6nmemesi nedeniyle Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 riskler g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor; \u0130ran ve Umman m\u00fczakeresi s\u00fcren bir anla\u015fmaya i\u015faret ederken, Katar Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Tahran\u2019da. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken; RSI orta 60\u2019larda, MACD pozitif ancak ivme kaybediyor. Diren\u00e7 4.700 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.900 dolar seviyelerinde; destek ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.525 dolar, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama civar\u0131nda 4.376 dolar, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck yak\u0131n\u0131nda 4.200 dolar ve 4.000 dolar olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n 4.589 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunun yava\u015flamas\u0131yla bir s\u00fcre konsolidasyona haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %62 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, agresif uzun pozisyonlar k\u0131sa vadede r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131dan alabilir. Bu ge\u00e7ici duraklamadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n konu\u015facak olmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimin s\u00fcrmesi, ani volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu olay riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ad\u0131na, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Jackson Hole\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 konu\u015fmalar\u0131, etkinli\u011fi izleyen g\u00fcnlerde Alt\u0131n\u2019da ortalama %1,5 ile %2 aras\u0131 fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi; bu da prim \u00f6demeye dayal\u0131 stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda, 4.525 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teknik taban sunuyor. Daha net bir trend olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, bu 4.525 dolar destek seviyesinde veya hemen alt\u0131nda vadeden \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fiyat bu taban\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarsa, bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesi 4.376 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamada bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,22\u2019ye toparlanmas\u0131 ve 203 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisi, Dolar\u2019\u0131n Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n geni\u015f resimdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi, metalin kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece korunuyor. 4.700 dolar direncinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; bu psikolojik bariyerin \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 4.900 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.643\u2019ten 4.589\u2019a geri \u00e7ekildi: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu ve y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri bask\u0131 kuruyor. Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosu \u00f6nde; Jackson Hole, 4.700 direnci kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t