Deutsche Bank stratejistleri, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq\u2019te nakit seansta sakin bir seyrin ard\u0131ndan Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 sonras\u0131 hisse senedi duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fctevaz\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha olumluya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Nvidia, gelirde beklenti \u00fczeri sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klarken cari \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in 105,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 108 milyar dolar gelir \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; y\u00f6netim ayr\u0131ca Ocak 2027\u2019de ba\u015flayacak mali y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Hisse, normal seansta %1,59 geriledikten sonra seans sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde %4,7 y\u00fckseldi; bu hareket S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemlerini %0,48 ve Nasdaq vadeli i\u015flemlerini %0,83 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Teknoloji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hareketler, di\u011fer bilan\u00e7o tepkilerinden de destek buldu. Salesforce, sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klarken Anthropic ile ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti; CrowdStrike hisseleri ise seans sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Asya hisseleri de bu ivmenin devam\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc: G\u00fcney Kore Kospi %1,49 art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00c7in\u2019de CSI 300 %0,50 y\u00fckselirken \u015eanghay Bile\u015fik Endeksi %0,60 artt\u0131, Japonya Nikkei %0,18 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Hong Kong Hang Seng ise %0,46 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, teknoloji \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir ralliye y\u00f6nelik olarak t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejilerinden faydalanarak aktif \u015fekilde pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7osu ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %70 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sonras\u0131, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endeksler yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki konsolidasyon a\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken prim erimesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji ETF\u2019lerinde vade\/strike se\u00e7imi iyi ayarlanm\u0131\u015f, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019lerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknoloji k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, 2024\u2019te S&P 500\u2019\u00fc art arda rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yan yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 geni\u015flemede oldu\u011fu gibi, geni\u015f piyasa i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,48 ve Nasdaq vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,83 y\u00fckselirken piyasa momentumu belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kay\u0131yor. Bunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 destek seviyeleri sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a Salesforce ve CrowdStrike gibi toparlanan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde prim toplamak amac\u0131yla nakit teminatl\u0131 (cash-secured) sat\u0131m (put) sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi yaln\u0131zca ABD ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil; haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla G\u00fcney Kore Kospi gibi Asya teknoloji endeksleri gece saatlerinde %1,49 y\u00fckseldi. Bu uluslararas\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte teknolojiye maruz ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel yar\u0131 iletken talebi g\u00f6stergeleri bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funda, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma e\u011filimindedir; bu da bor\u00e7lu spread\u2019leri (debit spread) \u015fu an olduk\u00e7a maliyet etkin hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olduk\u00e7a pozitif olsa da Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki makroekonomik verilerin k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini ak\u0131lda tutmak gerekir. Portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in opsiyon k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131yla S&P 500 \u00fczerinde ucuz, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, mevcut yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 dalgadan faydalan\u0131rken i\u015flem kitaplar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 ani makro \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nvidia bilan\u00e7osu ve %70 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 toparlad\u0131; S&P\/Nasdaq vadeli y\u00fckseldi, Asya da e\u015flik etti. Strateji: near-the-money call spread, cash-secured put, VIX s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda debit spread; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e OTM koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t