Hindistan rupisi, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn\u00fcn tatilinin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip seviye 95,40\u2019tan toparlanarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etse de, dolar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmas\u0131 Temmuz ay\u0131 ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verilerinin enflasyon endi\u015felerini g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,15 civar\u0131nda tutunuyordu. \u00c7ekirdek PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3 ile tahminler ve \u00f6nceki veriyle ayn\u0131 seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, man\u015fet PCE %3,6 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3,7\u2019de kald\u0131. CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, 28 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izliyordu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak Umman ile bir gelir payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131; ancak yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n sadece bu anla\u015fmadan daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirece\u011fini belirtti. MCX Eyl\u00fcl 21 vadeli ham petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.775 rupi seviyesinde %1,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR 20 periyotluk EMA olan 95,5543 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; diren\u00e7 95,55 ard\u0131ndan 96,5178, destek 95,40 ard\u0131ndan 94,16 seviyelerinde izlenirken RSI (14) 40,00\u201360,00 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Warsh May\u0131s 2026\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu; g\u00f6revi 2030\u2019a kadar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve Y\u00f6netim Kurulu (Board) g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi May\u0131s 2040\u2019ta bitiyor; 13 Nisan 1970 do\u011fumlu olan Warsh, 2006\u20132011 d\u00f6neminde y\u00f6netici (governor) olarak g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden enflasyon verileri sindirilirken USD\/INR paritesinin 95,50 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 bir \u015fekilde konsolide oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 20 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama 95,55\u2019te bulunurken G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede seyretmesi, teknik tarafta klasik bir volatilite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n bug\u00fcn yo\u011fun y\u00f6nsel pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
28 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131, izlememiz gereken ana kataliz\u00f6r. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizlerin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle, \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz USD\/INR\u2019yi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ilk diren\u00e7 olan 95,55\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu olay riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, her iki y\u00f6nde de ani ve sert hareketleri yakalamaya y\u00f6nelik uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Temel tarafta, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda \u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131ndaki gelir payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu durum, petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Hindistan ekonomisi i\u00e7in do\u011frudan olumlu. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enerji maliyetlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Rupiyi destekleyecektir. USD\/INR 96,52\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015faramazsa bunu bear call spread kurarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in 95,40\u2019taki ilk destek seviyesi kritik bir \u201cson kale\u201d niteli\u011finde. Jackson Hole sempozyumu sonras\u0131nda bu deste\u011fin korunmas\u0131 halinde, yatay bant temas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu da iron condor stratejilerini cazip k\u0131labilir. Ancak 95,40\u2019\u0131n net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 94,16\u2019ya do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir ve bu durumda h\u0131zla put opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7memizi gerektirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi tatil sonras\u0131 dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR 95,50\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. PCE enflasyonu ve Jackson Hole\u2019da Warsh konu\u015fmas\u0131 tetikleyici. 95,55\/95,40 kritik; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc rupi lehine. Opsiyonda straddle\/condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t