Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi ba\u015faramad\u0131 ve i\u015flemler, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde ihtiyatl\u0131 bir tona d\u00f6nerken haftan\u0131n zirvesinin (14 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Odak, politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve faiz getirisi olmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7eye y\u00f6nelik talebi etkileyebilecek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) yans\u0131malar\u0131 \u00fczerinde. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verileri faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fcndemde tuttu: Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi temmuz itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131; bu da faizlerin art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p art\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da sabit tutulup tutulmayaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD tahvil getirileri, Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m stratejisiyle birlikte bask\u0131l\u0131 seyrini korurken, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ici bir deniz g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesiyle kesi\u015fti\u011fi 4.525-4.515 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f yanl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 68,21\u2019de, MACD ise pozitif kald\u0131. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc izlenen seviyeler 4.700 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.861,14, 5.107,11 ve 5.420,42 olurken; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.301,87 ve 3.956,35 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131c\u0131 notta, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n genellikle \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2 civar\u0131nda hedefledi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131rken, Fed fonlama faizi i\u00e7in %4,75-%5,00 \u00f6rnek aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerek \u00fcst band\u0131n %5,00 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n, kritik 4.700 dolar direncinin hemen alt\u0131nda tutunurken t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na bu hafta sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum sergilese de piyasa \u015fu an gergin bir bekleme modunda. Faiz patikas\u0131na dair net sinyaller al\u0131nana kadar agresif y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar konusunda frene bas\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam ediyor; son PCE endeksi %3,7\u2019de, \u00e7ekirdek PCE ise %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Tarihsel olarak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011finde alt\u0131n, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi ve son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda benzer y\u00fcksek enflasyon rejimlerinde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama getiriler %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak bu y\u0131l bir kez daha faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski, k\u0131sa vadede olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ayn\u0131 zamanda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de frenliyor. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ici bir rotaya ili\u015fkin haberler baz\u0131 endi\u015feleri hafifletmi\u015f olsa da jeopolitik risk primi h\u00e2l\u00e2 devrede. Bu gerilim, hem petrolde hem de ABD dolar\u0131nda deste\u011fi canl\u0131 tutuyor; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 ivmesi \u00fczerinde do\u011fal bir fren etkisi yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, yeni uzun pozisyonlar a\u00e7madan \u00f6nce 4.700 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini beklemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. RSI \u015fu anda 68,21 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu da mevcut seviyelerden al\u0131m yapman\u0131n ani bir d\u00fczeltme riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, fiyat\u0131 %61,8 Fibonacci seviyesine denk gelen 4.861 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131ca ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise 4.515-4.525 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek k\u00fcmelenmesinin k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile hizalanan bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na sarkma, bir sonraki kritik yap\u0131sal taban olan 4.301 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes kullanmas\u0131 ve piyasa sempozyum sonras\u0131 net bir y\u00f6n belirleyene kadar bant i\u00e7i stratejilere odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler Jackson Hole\u2019da: Alt\u0131n 4.700 direncinde zorlan\u0131yor. PCE %3,7\/\u00e7ekirdek %3,3 faizi g\u00fcndemde tutarken dolar ve jeopolitik belirsizlik temkinli fiyatlan\u0131yor. 4.515 destek kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t