GBP\/JPY, 217,00\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 geri vererek 216,50\u2019ye do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada %0,36 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7o\u011fu kez \u201csahte k\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve yak\u0131n vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere i\u015faret eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 mumdan olu\u015fan \u201cak\u015fam y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131\u201d formasyonunu \u00fcretti.<\/p>\n
Destek 216,50 ve 216,00 seviyelerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; 216,00\u2019nin alt\u0131na bir hareket 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 (215,78) g\u00fcndeme getirecek, ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (215,02) izlenecek. Parite 217,00\u2019yi yeniden kazan\u0131rsa, odak 218,00\u2019e kayar; sonraki diren\u00e7ler 30 Temmuz zirvesi 218,69 ve ard\u0131ndan 219,00 seviyesinde. Daha geni\u015f arka planda yenin y\u00f6n\u00fc genellikle Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikas\u0131, Japonya-ABD tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerle ili\u015fkilendirilirken, BoJ\u2019un 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki ultra gev\u015fek duru\u015fu para birimini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f; 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan kademeli politika normalle\u015fmesi ise yene destek sunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131n\u0131 217,00 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 koruyamayarak 216,50 seviyesine geri \u00e7ekilmesi nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir \u201cak\u015fam y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131\u201d formasyonu olu\u015fturdu ve son y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, bu formasyonun genellikle k\u0131sa vadeli trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sinyali vermesi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in, zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirlerinin psikolojik 216,00 destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 216,00\u2019nin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, otomatik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir senaryo olup 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 215,78 ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 215,02 seviyelerini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. K\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, bu noktada cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunarak s\u00f6z konusu hareketli ortalamalara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n 217,00 seviyesini yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmesi durumunda esnek kalmak gerekiyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ak\u015fam y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve oda\u011f\u0131 218,00 hedefi ile temmuz sonundaki 218,69 zirvesine yeniden \u00e7evirir. Call opsiyonu almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, \u201cbo\u011fa tuza\u011f\u0131na\u201d yakalanmamak ad\u0131na 217,00 \u00fczerinde teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemek en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle de\u011fi\u015fen makro temellerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) bu y\u0131l politika faizini kademeli olarak %3,5\u2019e do\u011fru indirirken, BoJ kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda g\u00f6sterge faizini %0,5\u2019e do\u011fru yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 do\u011fal olarak Japon yeni lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor ve GBP\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 giderek daha riskli h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, k\u00fcresel piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor; bu durum tarihsel olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yen gibi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f stres d\u00f6nemlerinde ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerinin (carry trade) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle yenin h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz; herhangi bir ani piyasa \u015foku, 216,00 taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GBP\/JPY\u2019de 217,00 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131lma bozuldu; 216,50\u2019ye inen parite \u201cak\u015fam y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131\u201d ile zay\u0131flad\u0131. 216,00 alt\u0131 50\/100 SMA\u2019ya yol a\u00e7abilir. 217,00 \u00fcst\u00fc 218,00-218,69 hedef. Makroda BoE indirimleri, BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f yeni destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t