Bitwise CIO\u2019su Matt Hougan, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in tahvil piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndaki evrimin Bitcoin\u2019in \u201csert varl\u0131k\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Bessent ilk olarak uzun vadeli tahvillerde Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak uzun vadeli faizler kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmad\u0131: 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %5,29\u2019dan %5,20\u2019ye, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ise %4,70\u2019ten %4,65\u2019e geriledikten sonra yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Ard\u0131ndan CNBC\u2019de geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n 4 milyar dolar\u0131n da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirdi. Ayr\u0131 haberlerde ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fan Hazine Genel Hesab\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Treasury General Account) daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli operasyonlar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc; b\u00f6ylece yakla\u015f\u0131k 48 saat i\u00e7inde tart\u0131\u015fma 2 milyar dolardan, uzun vadeli tahviller i\u00e7in potansiyel 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir \u201carka plan deste\u011fine\u201d kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Hougan ayr\u0131ca Bessent\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n finansal ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kampanyaya da at\u0131f yapt\u0131; bu giri\u015fim pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cekonomik bir taarruz\u201d ve \u201cD-Day\u2019in finansal e\u015fde\u011feri\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Buna, 2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin dondurulmas\u0131 da e\u015flik etti. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, dolar bazl\u0131 sistemde g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyarken, Hougan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde tek bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan parasal varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda Bitcoin 78.390 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, son 24 saatte %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydediyordu.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Bitcoin al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Hazine\u2019nin 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k Hazine Genel Hesab\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kullanarak uzun vadeli faizleri bast\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik agresif hamlesi, tahvil piyasas\u0131nda ciddi bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gibi geleneksel getiriler bask\u0131ya direnip yeniden %4,70\u2019e do\u011fru toparland\u0131k\u00e7a, sermayenin k\u0131t ve alternatif varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
Bu tablo, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tarihsel olarak uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve nihayetinde yerel para birimini zay\u0131flatan ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z getiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fc giri\u015fimlerine yak\u0131ndan benziyor. ABD ulusal borcu 2026\u2019da h\u0131zla 40 trilyon dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken, dolar i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal risk hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar y\u00fcksek. Egemen bor\u00e7lardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapan b\u00fcy\u00fck makro yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n izinden giderek, yakla\u015fan bor\u00e7 krizine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) kontratlar\u0131yla korunma sa\u011flamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca dolar\u0131n giderek daha fazla \u201csilahla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d, k\u00fcresel finans akt\u00f6rlerini n\u00f6tr ve sans\u00fcre dayan\u0131kl\u0131 teminat aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na itiyor. Bitcoin\u2019in t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 \u015fimdiden bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor; CME a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu (open interest) 11 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu trendden, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar i\u015flemiyle faydalanabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
Bitcoin\u2019in \u015fu anda 78.000 dolar band\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu ortamda, ima edilen volatilite al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip fiyatlan\u0131yor. Hazine\u2019nin mali m\u00fcdahalelerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisini yakalarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u00fcresel parasal yeniden dengelenmenin bir sonraki a\u015famas\u0131 i\u00e7in bizi do\u011fru \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok dalgas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Bessent\u2019in 2\u20134 milyar $ tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131ndan 1 trilyon $ TGA \u201carka deste\u011fi\u201dne kay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Hazine\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p Bitcoin\u2019in sert varl\u0131k cazibesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t