Sterlin, ABD enflasyon verilerinin Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dolar\u2019\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,39 geriledi. GBP\/USD, 1,3651 seviyesini test ettikten sonra 1,3600\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Temmuz \u00e7ekirdek PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken, man\u015fet PCE %3,7 ile sabit kald\u0131 ve %3,6 olan piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Di\u011fer taraftan ABD GSYH\u2019si 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri Haziran\u2019daki %0,5 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %1,1 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Verilerin ard\u0131ndan Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,27 art\u0131\u015fla 99,17\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi d\u00f6rt baz puan artarak %4,664\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %39 olarak fiyatlarken, Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar toplam 27 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve %74 olas\u0131l\u0131kla 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veri bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, odak ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi ve Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD, 1,3410 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde 1,3594 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; RSI 60 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7ler 1,3628 ve 1,3676; destekler 1,3490 ard\u0131ndan 1,3410\u20131,3390 band\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de opsiyon straddle stratejileri kullanarak k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Man\u015fet PCE enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131, \u015fahin tondaki herhangi bir mesaj\u0131n pariteyi h\u0131zla 1,3500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na itmesine neden olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fcvercin bir ton, 1,3651\u2019deki son zirveye do\u011fru bir rahatlama rallisini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeyi bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir; zira \u0130ngiliz Sterlini h\u00e2l\u00e2 1,3410 civar\u0131ndaki kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha geni\u015f yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in 1,3490 destek seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kurulum tarihsel olarak al\u0131c\u0131lar lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; \u00f6zellikle de G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 60 civar\u0131nda, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine uzanmayan bir seviyede kalmas\u0131yla.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, y\u00fckselen faiz beklentilerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in Aral\u0131k vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Para piyasalar\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %74 gibi bask\u0131n bir ihtimalle zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; beklentilerin iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak ayl\u0131k %1,1 art\u0131\u015f kaydeden dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri dahil, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verileriyle de belirgin \u015fekilde destekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PCE\u2019nin beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini besledi, Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: Sterlin %0,39 gerileyip GBP\/USD 1,3600 alt\u0131na indi. G\u00f6zler Jackson Hole\u2019da; straddle \u00f6nerisi, destek 1,3490.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t