ABN AMRO, ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri ve artan risk priminin, daha y\u00fcksek ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinden gelebilecek olas\u0131 deste\u011fi dengeledi\u011fini bildirdi. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmi\u015f geri al\u0131m program\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmad\u0131; dikkat bor\u00e7 dinamikleri ve mali risklerde kal\u0131rken, duyuru \u00f6ncesinde de dolar zaten bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Duyurunun ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri geriledi ve dolar t\u00fcm cephede daha da zay\u0131flad\u0131. Euro bu hareketten destek buldu ve dolar\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD vade primi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrederken ABD dolar\u0131 geriledi; bu da nominal getirilerden ziyade risk priminin daha bask\u0131n bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7iminde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; 2026\u2019da 39 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan ABD ulusal borcuna ili\u015fkin artan kayg\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek Hazine tahvil getirilerinin etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu y\u0131l GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5\u2019i seviyesinde seyrediyor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir risk primi talep etmeye zorluyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar endeksinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu e\u011filimden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay olan, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dolar\u0131n gerilemesinin birincil faydalan\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 Euro oldu ve bu y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 kurgulamak i\u00e7in ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece ucuz kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu strateji, Euro\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fin potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken, Hazine tahvil getirilerinin ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k vade primi 2026 yaz\u0131 boyunca istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum, Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m \u00e7abalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik derin bir \u015f\u00fcphecili\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, G10 para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem (futures) kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden dolar aleyhine pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fckselen vade primlerinin tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisiyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2007 sonu ve 2023 sonu gibi ikiz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n ve y\u00fckselen risk primlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler, aylar s\u00fcren dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Mevcut pozisyonlanma verileri, varl\u0131k y\u00f6neticilerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7i\u015fken bi\u00e7imde dolar uzun (long) pozisyonda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin (unwind) paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Sonbahar likiditesi geri d\u00f6nmeden ve bu hareketleri daha da h\u0131zland\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce, portf\u00f6ylerimizi bu de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6re konumland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar i\u00e7in alarm zilleri: ABN AMRO\u2019ya g\u00f6re maliye politikas\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen risk primi, y\u00fcksek tahvil getirisi deste\u011fini siliyor. Euro \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00f6neri: k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t