WTI, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 79,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. ABD referans petrol\u00fc, \u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin temaslara dair haberlerin risk primini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla, ge\u00e7en haftaki 87,00 dolar \u00fczerindeki zirvelere k\u0131yasla %9 geriledi. Umman Haber Ajans\u0131, iki \u00fclkenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir deniz koridorunu tan\u0131mlamak \u00fczere teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ge\u00e7ici bir rotan\u0131n yak\u0131nda duyurulabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden sinyaller bulundu\u011funu belirtirken, Tahran serbest ge\u00e7i\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketi sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmakta etkisiz kald\u0131. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca ABD stok verilerine \u00e7evriliyor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA), 21 A\u011fustos haftas\u0131nda 1,9 milyon varillik stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 raporlamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bir \u00f6nceki hafta 4,4 milyon varil art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015fti. Do\u011frulanmas\u0131 halinde bu, ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risklerin azalmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n artmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI\u2019nin 87 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son zirvesinden 79,50 dolar b\u00f6lgesine %9 gerilemesi, piyasan\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma primini h\u0131zla fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bear call spread stratejilerinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oyun de\u011fi\u015ftirici niteli\u011finde; bu dar ge\u00e7it tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor ve bu miktar k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin kabaca %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ticaret ortaklar\u0131na ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulamay\u0131 tercih etmemesi nedeniyle, yerelle\u015fmi\u015f arz endi\u015felerinin daha da hafiflemesini bekliyoruz. Dalgal\u0131 jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar so\u011fumaya devam ettik\u00e7e prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda, yurti\u00e7i stok verileri k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc (short) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. 21 A\u011fustos ile biten hafta i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,9 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki haftadaki 4,4 milyon varillik sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu biriken arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n WTI\u2019yi bir sonraki \u00f6nemli destek seviyesi olan 75 dolar civar\u0131na itmesini bekliyoruz; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) short pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vade kontrat fiyatlar\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yumu\u015farken daha uzun vadeli kontratlara g\u00f6re contango yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden yararlanmak \u00fczere takvim spreadlerinin (calendar spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, A\u011fustos sonundaki ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k stok art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genellikle yaz\u0131n zirve s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonundan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini ve fiziki talebi daha da zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ran-Umman teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde gecikmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin 82 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI 79,50 dolara gerileyip 80\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; \u0130ran-Umman H\u00fcrm\u00fcz temaslar\u0131 risk primini eritti. ABD stoklar\u0131nda 4. art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor: put\/bear spread, short ve 75 dolar hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t