Uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri, Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in piyasa m\u00fcdahalesinin \u00fczerinden bir hafta ge\u00e7mesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10-15 bp daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde. Ge\u00e7en haftadan bu yana petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, faizler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131rken dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 da destekliyor. Bir sonraki kritik durak bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE enflasyon verisi; bunu yar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek 44 milyar dolarl\u0131k 7 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil ihalesi ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 izleyecek. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriler faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak kur ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na da sakinlik olarak yans\u0131d\u0131. Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 Avustralya dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131; DXY\u2019nin 99,00\/10 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, son diplerin ise 98,60 yak\u0131n\u0131nda oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa\u2019da, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen olumlu veriler ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi 25 bp indirerek %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekmesine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri peki\u015ftirdi; gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in de ilave 25 bp indirim h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlan\u0131yor. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in destek 1,1650\/60, diren\u00e7 ise 1,1700\/1710 band\u0131nda i\u015faret ediliyor. Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi 25 bp indirerek %5,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekti; y\u0131l sonu tahminleri EUR\/HUF\u2019un mevcut 3,60 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 3,50\u2019de olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Macar tahvil getirilerinin ise %5,43\u2019ten %4,75\u2019e gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019de USD\/CNH yatay bir konsolidasyon i\u00e7inde; PBoC\u2019nin USD\/CNY fixing\u2019lerini daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekerken, baz senaryo \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda USD\/CNY\u2019nin kademeli olarak 6,70\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin, ABD uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerindeki son 10-15 baz puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanarak faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya oynayan pozisyonlar almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in piyasa m\u00fcdahaleleri ve k\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile birlikte, faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck risk fiyatl\u0131yor. \u0130\u015flemciler, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Hazine tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, DXY 99,10\u2019un alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 98,60\u2019a do\u011fru bir gerilemeyi hedefleyen ABD Dolar Endeksi \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi ve ECB yetkililerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret etmesiyle EUR\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131 1,1700 hedefiyle cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, benzer enerji maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6nemleri, blok genelinde a\u011f\u0131r sanayi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltarak Euro\u2019yu destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131, Temmuz enflasyon verisinin s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 gelmesi ve Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla carry trade odakl\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejiler i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken AUD\u2019de ilave yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in risk reversal kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. VIX gibi k\u00fcresel oynakl\u0131k endeksleri 13\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaki sakin yaz diplerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerinde ivme belirginle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n\n
Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n kritik 2\u00c7 finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bug\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, hisse t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin belirgin bir \u201cvolatilite \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. K\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda ima edilen volatilite olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek; bu da prim toplamak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 hareketleri daha geni\u015f teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc momentumu \u00fczerinde belirleyici oldu\u011fundan, teknoloji endekslerinde out-of-the-money koruyucu put al\u0131mlar\u0131 daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Geli\u015fen piyasalar taraf\u0131nda, getirilerin %5,43\u2019ten %4,75\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemeye aday g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle Macar forintinde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerinde receiver swap pozisyonlar\u0131yla f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Asya\u2019da ise USD\/CNH\u2019de 6,70 seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli bir gev\u015femeyi oynamak i\u00e7in temkinli USD\/CNH put spread\u2019lerini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 renminbi\u2019nin de\u011ferlenme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatm\u0131\u015f olsa da, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 korumas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada y\u00f6n yeniden faizlerde: ABD 10-15 bp gerilerken petrol %8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. G\u00f6zler PCE, 7Y ihale, Jackson Hole\u2019da. Straddle sat, DXY put; EUR\/AUD opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t