Brent ham petrol, \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberlerin enerji piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki %13\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015finin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Son 24 saatte, olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes takvimine i\u015faret eden haberlerle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparland\u0131; bu da petrol\u00fc Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Brent Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana %8,6 gerilerken, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 hareket Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri de tetikledi ve k\u00fcresel tahvil ve hisse senetleri i\u00e7in daha destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019un yeniden tam \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma beklemedi\u011fine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD diplomatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131na ve m\u00fcttefiklere yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 aranmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n iletildi\u011fine dair ayr\u0131 haberler dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi geli\u015fme alg\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131ndaki ilave g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ici bir ortak deniz koridoru i\u00e7in \u201cara \u00e7er\u00e7eveye\u201d odakland\u0131; bu kapsamda may\u0131n temizleme i\u015fbirli\u011fi de yer ald\u0131. Rus devlet medyas\u0131 ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvenceler i\u00e7eren yeni bir ate\u015fkesin duyurulmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Brent g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,89 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlarken, bu sabah erken i\u015flemlerde de %2,60 gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine indi.<\/p>\n
Brent ham petrol\u00fcn bu hafta %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine inmesiyle enerji piyasalar\u0131nda sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu hareket, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki rallinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sildi. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine dair artan umutlar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak ortak bir deniz koridoru beklentisiyle besleniyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, jeopolitik risk primlerindeki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden ayarlamas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Arz kesintisi riskinin k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla, Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) son zirvelerinden belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemesini bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak veya ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019i (bear call spread) kurmak gibi k\u0131sa volatilite stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik gerilimler azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, z\u0131mni volatilite h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6ker ve bu durum opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6ylentisi olan ate\u015fkesin resm\u00ee olarak do\u011frulanmas\u0131 halinde Brent ham petrol, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75-80 dolar band\u0131ndaki bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesini h\u0131zla test edebilir. Bu aral\u0131k, arz endi\u015feleri yat\u0131\u015f\u0131p odak daha zay\u0131f k\u00fcresel talebe d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, put oran spread\u2019leri (put ratio spread) veya Eyl\u00fcl sonu vadeli, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, daha ucuz petrol k\u00fcresel enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir rahatlama anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu da tahviller ve hisse senetleri i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 yaratabilir. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bu rahatlama rallisinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc faiz oran\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n incelenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Enerji bask\u0131lar\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a, makroekonomik zemin riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in belirgin \u015fekilde daha elveri\u015fli hale geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: Brent, ate\u015fkes sinyalleriyle son rallinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 silip 86 dolar \u00fczerine indi; risk primi erirken OVX gerileyebilir, 75-80 destek g\u00fcndemde, tahvil-hisseye destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t