Asya\u2019da risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ancak Avustralya\u2019da daha s\u0131cak enflasyon, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma riskini peki\u015ftirirken ASX 200 geride kald\u0131. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019si ayl\u0131k %1,0 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 artt\u0131; Japonya\u2019da Temmuz hizmetler \u00dcFE\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 oldu. Petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri ve tahvil getirileri; ABD\u2019nin sald\u0131r\u0131lardan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kayabilece\u011fine dair haberler ile \u0130ran\u2013Umman aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in kademeli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye y\u00f6nelik paralel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir rota hedeflendi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki raporlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi. Emtia ta\u015f\u0131yan gemi ge\u00e7i\u015fleri \u00f6nceki 1\u2019e k\u0131yasla 5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ancak 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. WTI %2,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 80,69 dolar\/varile geriledi; alt\u0131n %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.644 dolar\/onsa indi; BTC %2,2 kay\u0131pla 78.903 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc BoJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Himino\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na, BoK faiz karar\u0131na, Nvidia bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na ve Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131na, ayr\u0131ca ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisine \u00e7evrildi. ABD\u2019de A\u011fustos t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 90,2 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 89,4\u2019e geriledi; Haziran FHFA konut fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda (+%0,2 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n) yatay, \u00e7eyreklik bazda ise \u00f6nceki +%0,6\u2019ya k\u0131yasla +%0,4 oldu. Temmuz yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 620 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 607 bin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; stok\/sat\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 9,3\u2019ten 9,6 aya y\u00fckseldi. Hazine\u2019nin 69 milyar dolarl\u0131k 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi %4,315 \u00f6ncekiye kar\u015f\u0131 %4,204 bile\u015fik getiriyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131; talep\/kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 2,60x oldu. ABD borsalar\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle tamamlad\u0131: S&P 500 %0,3 art\u0131\u015fla 7.677\u2019ye, Nasdaq %0,7 art\u0131\u015fla 26.151\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonun her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 da Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle Avustralya ve Japonya\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Avustralya\u2019da Temmuz T\u00dcFE\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz bi\u00e7imde y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve Japonya hizmetler \u00dcFE\u2019sinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirve olan %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi. Kurda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini %4,6\u2019ya \u00e7ekmesiyle birlikte, AUD ve JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda, ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar destek seviyesini test etti\u011fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin k\u0131r\u0131lgan diplomatik temaslar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015fetmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir anla\u015fma oldu\u011funa dair teyitsiz haberler fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, tarihsel \u00f6rnekler jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin Brent ve WTI\u2019da h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde %5\u2013%10\u2019luk hareketlere yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ani bir m\u00fczakere bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131rken, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nun yar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n planlanmas\u0131yla, ABD Hazine tahvili t\u00fcrevlerinde anlaml\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlama bekliyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu beklenti, Boston Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Collins\u2019in dezenflasyonun duraksamas\u0131 halinde faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131yla da destekleniyor. Para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden getiri e\u011frisinin \u00f6n taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, bu gece beklenen Nvidia bilan\u00e7osu \u00f6ncesinde hisse senedi opsiyon piyasas\u0131 y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni (implied) hareketleri fiyatl\u0131yor. S&P 500 7.677\u2019ye t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f olsa da genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn performans\u0131na ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki \u00e7ok milyar dolarl\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc uzla\u015f\u0131lar\u0131 gibi b\u00f6lgesel \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas. Nasdaq \u00fczerinde iron condor veya straddle gibi piyasa-n\u00f6tr stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131, bilan\u00e7o verisi sindirildikten sonra y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni volatilitedeki daralmadan (volatility contraction) faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Asya\u2019da risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artsa da Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131cak T\u00dcFE\u2019si ASX\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131. Petrol, alt\u0131n ve BTC geri \u00e7ekildi. Odak BoJ\/BoK, Jackson Hole, \u00e7ekirdek PCE ve Nvidia bilan\u00e7osunda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t