17-24 A\u011fustos tarihleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan bir Reuters anketi, ekonomistlerin %57\u2019sinin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, Temmuz anketindeki havan\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir grup (58 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n 10\u2019u), 1,50% seviyesine ilave bir ad\u0131m\u0131n Ekim veya Aral\u0131k\u2019ta gelebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Analistlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi (54\u2019\u00fcn 35\u2019i), politika faizinin gelecek y\u0131l Mart sonuna kadar en az %1,5\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti; bu, Temmuz anketine k\u0131yasla \u00fc\u00e7 ay daha erken bir zamanlamaya denk geliyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131 ise 2027 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonu itibar\u0131yla faizin asgari %1,75 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. <\/p>\n
Nihai zirve faize ili\u015fkin beklentiler de de\u011fi\u015fti. Ek bir soruya yan\u0131t veren 36 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131, terminal faizin %1,75 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %19\u2019du. \u201c%2 veya \u00fczeri\u201d se\u00e7ene\u011fini i\u015faretleyenlerin pay\u0131 da Temmuz\u2019daki %23\u2019ten %36\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda USD\/JPY g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,17 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 158,92 seviyesindeydi. BoJ\u2019nin mandat\u0131, y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren ultra-gev\u015fek politikan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 hedefliyor: 2013\u2019ten bu yana QQE, 2016\u2019da negatif faizlerin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri kontrol\u00fc, ayr\u0131ca Mart 2024\u2019te bu duru\u015ftan geri ad\u0131m kapsam\u0131nda gelen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki BoJ Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu art\u0131k \u201chemen\u201d bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Politika faizinin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar %1,5\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Son enflasyon verileri de bu \u015fahin bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekliyor; Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin artmas\u0131yla, paritede olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz 2024\u2019te piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesiyle Yen\u2019in h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullanmak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken mevcut seviyelerin alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon veya sabit faiz \u00f6deyen (pay-fixed) faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131na giri\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Analistlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k politika faizinin gelecek y\u0131la kadar en az %1,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi, tahvil getirilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar, piyasan\u0131n ultra-gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesine uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, y\u00fckselen faiz beklentilerinden do\u011frudan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ\u2019de \u015fahin r\u00fczg\u00e2r: Reuters anketinde ekonomistlerin %57\u2019si Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Mart\u2019a kadar %1,5, 2027\u2019ye %1,75 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken terminal faiz %2+ ihtimali art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t