ABD, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde ABD, Kanada ve Meksika aras\u0131nda ticareti yap\u0131lan \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fcr\u00fcnde g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini kald\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen Kuzey Amerika Serbest Ticaret Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan (NAFTA) uzakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kanada ile ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131. NAFTA\u2019n\u0131n yerini 2020\u2019de, ulusal g\u00fcvenlikle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz ticareti s\u00fcrd\u00fcren Kanada-ABD-Meksika Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ald\u0131. Son \u00f6nlemler bu muafiyet kapsam\u0131nda sunulmad\u0131; bunun yerine Beyaz Saray, 1962 tarihli Ticaretin Geni\u015fletilmesi Yasas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 338. maddesini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi ve \u201cKanada\u2019n\u0131n Amerikan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik ayr\u0131mc\u0131 muamelesi\u201d iddias\u0131yla bir dizi Kanada ithalat\u0131na %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 savundu.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray ayr\u0131ca Kanada\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer ortaklarla daha avantajl\u0131 anla\u015fmalar pe\u015finde ko\u015fmas\u0131na ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD men\u015feli alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecek ithalat\u0131nda sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Bu geli\u015fmeler, Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme\u2019nin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda anayasaya ayk\u0131r\u0131 buldu\u011fu \u00f6nceki ABD tarifelerine verilen tepkiler olarak nitelendirildi. Yeni %50 tarifeye tabi \u00fcr\u00fcnler aras\u0131nda motorlu ta\u015f\u0131tlar, alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecekler, s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, kontrplak, \u00e7imento, mobilya, giyim, tohumlar, olta kam\u0131\u015flar\u0131, hokey sopalar\u0131, y\u00fczme havuzlar\u0131 ve peruklar yer al\u0131yor. Kanada, misilleme olarak \u201cdolara kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u201d esas\u0131na dayal\u0131 tarifelerle yan\u0131t verece\u011fini belirtti. Anla\u015fmazl\u0131k \u015fimdiden Kanada\u2019dan ABD\u2019ye turizmin azalmas\u0131 ve Amerikan alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7eceklerine y\u00f6nelik boykotlarla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi.<\/p>\n
Bu ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131k\u00e7a USD\/CAD paritesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki ikili ticaretin tarihsel olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k 900 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir hacme sahip oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte herhangi bir aksama Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131layacakt\u0131r. Misilleme tehditleri yakla\u015f\u0131rken Kanada dolar\u0131nda ani bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Motorlu ta\u015f\u0131tlara getirilen %50 tarife, montaj s\u00fcrecinde otomotiv par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 sekiz defaya kadar ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, y\u00fcksek entegrasyona sahip bir tedarik zincirinin tam kalbini hedefliyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, \u00f6nceki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneli hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri ya\u015fayan b\u00fcy\u00fck otomotiv \u00fcreticileri ve par\u00e7a tedarik\u00e7ileri \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi gerekir. Bu otomotiv hissesi opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklenir; bu da straddle gibi uzun oynakl\u0131k stratejilerini \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca emtia vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131nda, bu yeni ABD \u00f6nlemlerinin do\u011frudan hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kereste ve tar\u0131m ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pozisyon almal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak, tomruk\/kereste tarifeleri uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle ABD i\u00e7 kereste fiyatlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. ABD kereste vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131p Kanada\u2019ya maruziyeti y\u00fcksek ormanc\u0131l\u0131k hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir istatistiksel arbitraj f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Sanayi emtialar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, tarife listesine mobilya, giyim ve paketli g\u0131dalar gibi t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131n\u0131n dahil edilmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak ABD enflasyonunu k\u00f6r\u00fckleyecektir. Ekonomik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, tarife y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn tarihsel olarak neredeyse %100\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn ABD\u2019li ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar ve t\u00fcketiciler taraf\u0131ndan ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, ABD t\u00fcketici d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel (consumer discretionary) hissesi opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. K\u00e2r marj\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in Kanada\u2019dan t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD\u2019li perakendeciler \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fbakan Mark Carney \u201cdolara kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u201d misillemeyi de\u011ferlendirirken, uzayan bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 riski standart korelasyon modellerine g\u00fcvenemeyece\u011fimiz anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kanada, kendi t\u00fcketicilerini korumak amac\u0131yla agresif misilleme tarifelerine gitmeden \u00e7izgisini korumaya karar verirse, Kanada dolar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanabilir. Bu nedenle, ilk panik dalgas\u0131 ge\u00e7tikten sonra, \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak \u00fczere derin \u201czarar d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (deep out-of-the-money) CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda prim satmay\u0131 (write) de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD, Kanada ithalat\u0131na %50 tarife kart\u0131n\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131; Ottawa \u201cdolara kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u201d misillemeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. USD\/CAD\u2019de sert oynakl\u0131k, otomotiv ve kerestede \u015fok beklenirken opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t