Meksika pesosu sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 10 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti; USD\/MXN 16,95\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken son i\u015flem 16,94 seviyesindeydi. Piyasalar, ABD verileri ile ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri tartt\u0131. Meksika\u2019n\u0131n cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131 2026 2. \u00e7eyrekte 8,9 milyar dolarl\u0131k fazla verdi; bu, 1. \u00e7eyrekte revize edilen 18,23 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de gerileyen Hazine tahvili getirileri dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,08 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,90\u2019a indi. Axios\u2019un kaynaklar\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re, ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131mda sald\u0131r\u0131lardan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara do\u011fru kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015fimdilik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fini ifade etti; jeopolitik risk de fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layamazken, a\u011fustosta mevcut i\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair alg\u0131daki iyile\u015fmeyle birlikte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde toparland\u0131. Temmuzda \u0130n\u015faat \u0130zinleri artarken, ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki haftan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Boston Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Susan Collins, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi trend civar\u0131nda ve istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 tam istihdamla uyumlu tarif etse de enflasyona ili\u015fkin \u015fahin duru\u015funu korudu; \u015fimdi odak, Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisine ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Ayr\u0131ca Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri, GSYH ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
Meksika pesosu 10 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken ve USD\/MXN paritesi 16,94 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin buluyor. Se\u00e7enek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrmesinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/MXN\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put spread\u2019lere bakmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 31 civar\u0131nda seyrederek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011finden, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yeniden devreye girmeden \u00f6nce s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 teknik tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Pesoya y\u00f6nelik temel destek, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n cazip faiz fark\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde beslenmeye devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak Banxico, politika faizini ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek tutarken, son y\u0131llarda fark \u00e7o\u011funlukla 500 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131, MXN carry trade\u2019ini te\u015fvik etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek getiri arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in uzun peso y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pesoya ili\u015fkin olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2026 2. \u00e7eyrekteki 8,9 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc cari fazla dahil sa\u011flam makro verilerle de peki\u015fiyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri, tarihsel olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k 63 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve likiditeye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam eden diren\u00e7li i\u015f\u00e7i d\u00f6vizleri (remittances) taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temeller, parite 17,33 direncinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla USD\/MXN\u2019de kapal\u0131 (covered) call yaz\u0131m\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki yak\u0131ndan izlenecek konu\u015fmas\u0131 kritik olacak. ABD enflasyonunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, USD\/MXN\u2019de k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir toparlanmay\u0131 17,36 civar\u0131ndaki al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi engeline do\u011fru tetikleyebilir. B\u00f6yle d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011findeki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor; nihai hedefi ise 15,49 civar\u0131ndaki tarihsel yap\u0131sal destek taban\u0131na do\u011fru bir hareket olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Pezoda ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: USD\/MXN 16,94\u2019te 10 y\u0131l zirvesine yak\u0131n. ABD tahvil getirileri ve \u0130ran tonu dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Meksika cari fazla verdi. Piyasada put spread\/covered call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed-PCE\/Jackson Hole kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t