{"id":53237,"date":"2026-08-26T01:26:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T01:26:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/altin-hurmuz-geriliminin-azalmasi-ve-asiri-alim-sinyallerinin-zayiflamasiyla-4-700-dolarin-altina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T01:26:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T01:26:19","slug":"altin-hurmuz-geriliminin-azalmasi-ve-asiri-alim-sinyallerinin-zayiflamasiyla-4-700-dolarin-altina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/altin-hurmuz-geriliminin-azalmasi-ve-asiri-alim-sinyallerinin-zayiflamasiyla-4-700-dolarin-altina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz geriliminin azalmas\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyallerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda 4.700 dolar b\u00f6lgesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. XAU\/USD 4.641 dolarda ve %0,2 ekside seyrederken, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi yeniden ele ge\u00e7irememesi geri \u00e7ekilmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Fiyat hareketi dengelense de momentum so\u011fudu; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edildi. Jeopolitik destek de zay\u0131flad\u0131: Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re iki ABD\u2019li yetkili, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki trafik ayr\u0131m d\u00fczenini (traffic separation scheme) g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberleri do\u011frulad\u0131; bu da g\u00fcvenli liman talebini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi.<\/p>\n\n

ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 9,5 bin seviyesinden 11,75 bine y\u00fckselirken, Yap\u0131 Ruhsatlar\u0131 (Building Permits) Haziran\u2019daki %-2,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Temmuz\u2019da %4,3 artarak 1,433 milyona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve bu, %5\u2019lik beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni 90,2 ile 90,2 beklentisine paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re, faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %43, faizin sabit kalmas\u0131na ise %57 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor. Piyasalar \u00e7ekirdek PCE, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri, GSYH ve Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ile birlikte Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 izliyor. Grafiklerde destek 4.600 dolarda; ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) 4.519 dolar ve 4.500 dolar ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.379 dolar seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 4.700 dolarda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, sonras\u0131nda 4.764, 4.800 ve 5.000 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik ve Jeopolitik Arka Plan<\/h3>\n\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.700 dolar tavan\u0131ndan 4.641 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda jeopolitik tansiyonun azalmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 70 \u00fczerindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesi, \u015fu a\u015famada en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, sert bir rallinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131n RSI\u2019\u0131 70 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na geri indi\u011finde, de\u011ferli metalde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %3 ila %5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Bu k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, 4.600 dolardaki kritik destek seviyesini hedefleyen vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, \u00fcst kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) 4.700\u2019\u00fcn az \u00fczerinde belirlenmi\u015f ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri kurulabilir ve b\u00f6ylece daha g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde prim toplanabilir. 4.600 dolar taban\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.519 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ini\u015f bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

Yakla\u015fan \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki ilk konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oynakl\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f riskine de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev piyasalar \u015fu anda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %57 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz i\u00e7in kayda de\u011fer %43\u2019l\u00fck bir ihtimal b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu kadar s\u0131k\u0131 fiyatlama, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Vadeli i\u015flem taraf\u0131nda ise 4.710 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) konumland\u0131r\u0131larak taktiksel k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son borsa verileri, toplam alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) miktar\u0131n\u0131n son bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ani tasfiyelere (likidasyon) a\u00e7\u0131k, y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f baz\u0131nda 4.700 dolar seviyesini net \u015fekilde yeniden kazanmad\u0131k\u00e7a, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin en do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131: XAU\/USD 4.700\u2019den 4.641\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mdan d\u00f6n\u00fcyor, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 4.600 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.519-4.500 g\u00fcndemde; Fed verileri volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t