USD\/JPY, Japon yeni \u00e7o\u011fu G10 para biriminin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,00 ile 159\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131 aras\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yen, USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte ve G10 grubunda NOK hari\u00e7 t\u00fcm benzerlerinin gerisinde. Temel veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, fiyat hareketleri politika beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere daha duyarl\u0131 hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Medya haberlerine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e \u00f6telemesi, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 bp seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da beklentilerde daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca 18 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde BoJ\u2019un politikay\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00e7er\u00e7eveleyece\u011finde. Bankan\u0131n tonu, yen ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla USD\/JPY i\u00e7in ana belirleyici fakt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yen di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerinin gerisinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158,00\u2013159,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini izliyoruz. 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini gelecek aya kayd\u0131r\u0131yor; ancak piyasa \u015fu a\u015famada yaln\u0131zca 20 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu fiyatlama a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yende beklentilerin aniden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor ve t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyelli bir pencere olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekirse, 2024 ortas\u0131nda benzer bir riskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, beklenmedik bir faiz ayarlamas\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019nin bir aydan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 161\u2019in \u00fczerinden 142\u2019nin alt\u0131na sert d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut opsiyon primleri hen\u00fcz b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) almak \u015fu an maliyet-etkin bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 158,00 taban\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanman\u0131n, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle sat\u0131n almak gibi ima edilen volatilite stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak agresif \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesi halinde, yene talepte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f ve opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6rmemiz muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f volatilite primleri \u00f6dememek ad\u0131na bu pozisyonlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcn ilk haftas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce olu\u015fturmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 158\u2013159,50 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; yen G10\u2019da zay\u0131f. Veri az, BoJ beklentisi belirleyici. Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yaln\u0131z 20 bp fiyatlan\u0131yor: yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz alan\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck, opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t