EUR\/USD, A\u011fustos ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Almanya IFO i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveninin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 ve nihai 2\u00c7 GSYH verilerinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan 1,16\u2019n\u0131n orta-\u00fcst band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. \u0130yile\u015fmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ticaretten kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Veriler, 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. Piyasalar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k 24 bp seviyesinde. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 ise y\u0131l sonuna kadar k\u00fcm\u00fclatif 42 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Getiri farklar\u0131ndaki toparlanma euroyu desteklese de, spot kurun 1,1622 seviyesindeki \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d tahmininin hafif \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi ve bunun yak\u0131n vadede ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Teknik seviyeler kapsam\u0131nda 1,17 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, 1,18\u2019e kadar belirgin bir diren\u00e7 alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu kaydedildi. RSI 70 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131nd\u0131. Destek seviyeleri 1,1650 ve 1,1600 olarak belirtilirken, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 1,1632 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,16\u2019n\u0131n orta-\u00fcst band\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011funu, Almanya\u2019dan gelen beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki ekonomik verilerin pariteyi destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n nihai ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi ticaret \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterirken, IFO i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven endeksinin yatay kalmas\u0131yla birlikte euro ge\u00e7ici bir taban buldu. Ancak piyasan\u0131n bu pozitif s\u00fcrprizleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda kurun 1,1622 seviyesindeki tahmini adil de\u011ferimizin hafif \u00fczerinde primli i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, yak\u0131n vadeli kazan\u00e7lar i\u00e7in alan\u0131n dar oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 10 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019daki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na giderken, piyasa 25 baz puanl\u0131k olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse 24 baz puan\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yakla\u015fan faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n euro i\u00e7in yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc yaratmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 70 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut rallinin 1,1700 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda ivme kaybetmesini beklemesi gerekir. Opsiyon taraf\u0131nda, bu konsolidasyondan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bant i\u00e7i stratejilerin (\u00f6rne\u011fin, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor) de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, euro adil de\u011ferinin \u00fczerinde seyrederken RSI\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde volatilite satmak veya k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak daha elveri\u015fli risk-getiri profilleri sunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 1,1700 bariyerini a\u015famamas\u0131 halinde, 1,1650 ve 1,1600\u2019daki ilk desteklere do\u011fru kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. 1,1632 seviyesindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat hareketini kendine \u00e7ekebilecek kritik bir \u201c\u00e7apa\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Son CFTC (vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131) pozisyon verileri, euro net-uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yatayla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz veriler ralliyi tetikledi ama\u2026 EUR\/USD 1,16 band\u0131nda; Almanya IFO ve GSYH g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. ECB\u2019de 25 bp neredeyse fiyatl\u0131. 1,17 diren\u00e7, RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t