EUR\/USD, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcndeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde sekitar 1,1670 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Hareket; artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek seyreden tahvil getirileri ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyen Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan gerilim taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi. Bu zemin, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha \u015fahin bir hatta y\u00f6nelece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, piyasalar Haziran\u2019daki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 takiben Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatl\u0131yor. Uzun vadeli Euro B\u00f6lgesi devlet tahvili getirileri \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrini koruyor ve ABD\u2019deki hareketleri takip ediyor; Washington\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rehavete kap\u0131labilece\u011fi endi\u015feleri, Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya IFO i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni verisi \u00f6ncesinde makro haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sakin seyrederken, getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin son bir haftada y\u00fckselmesiyle euronun deste\u011fini bir miktar azaltt\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvillerde geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; haberlere g\u00f6re Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, operasyonlar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in Hazine Genel Hesab\u0131\u2019ndan (TGA) yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolara yak\u0131n bir kayna\u011f\u0131 devreye sokabilir. Jeopolitik tansiyon da y\u00fckseliyor: ABD, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletirken Bessent bu hafta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir finans kurulu\u015funun tedbirlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu ve \u00c7in\u2019in de muaf olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc PCE fiyat endeksini ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole\u2019daki konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyor.<\/p>\n
Yo\u011fun ekonomik takvim e\u015fli\u011finde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1670 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Almanya IFO i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni verisinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli risk dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, straddle gibi k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Faiz dinamiklerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde paritede keskin ve ani dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolara yak\u0131n bir kayna\u011f\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 planlamas\u0131yla likidite dinamikleri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Jackson Hole sempozyumu \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmesiyle dolar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir toparlanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un yakla\u015fan konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; zira g\u00f6sterge ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle %4,3 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan gerilim ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesinin tetikledi\u011fi Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 da korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar, ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesini olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD kaynakl\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ECB\u2019deki bu \u015fahinle\u015fme de\u011fi\u015fimine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131ndan yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki yo\u011fun veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131; bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE fiyat endeksi dahil, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n riskli pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu e\u011filim k\u0131sa vadede genellikle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00fcst \u00fcste gelen makroekonomik ve jeopolitik kataliz\u00f6rlerde geni\u015f stop-loss aral\u0131klar\u0131 veya yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlarla risk y\u00f6netimi yapmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u0131cak geli\u015fme: EUR\/USD 1,1670\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken petrol, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlat\u0131yor. IFO, ABD g\u00fcveni-PCE-Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131kta opsiyon\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t