The Electrum Group\u2019un Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve CIO\u2019su Thomas Kaplan, Kitco News\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada alt\u0131n\u0131n 10 kat artarak 50.000 dolara kadar y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtirken 30.000\u201340.000 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme getirdi. Bir zaman \u00e7izelgesi vermeyen Kaplan, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u201cuzun dalga\u201d bir hareketten s\u00f6z etti; son d\u00fczeltmenin dip yap\u0131p yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ise yorum yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Do\u011fal kaynaklar odakl\u0131 dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ve varl\u0131k y\u00f6netimi \u015firketi Electrum Group\u2019un y\u00f6netimindeki varl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 milyar dolar; Kaplan ayr\u0131ca Rembrandt eserlerinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6zel koleksiyonerlerinden biri.<\/p>\n\n
Kaplan, ailesinin enerji \u015firketini satt\u0131ktan sonra 2007\u2019de alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve o d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 550\u2013600 dolar seviyesinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 500 dolar band\u0131ndan 3.000\u20135.000 dolara y\u00fckselece\u011fine dair \u00f6nceki beklentisine at\u0131fta bulunarak, 5.000 dolara yeniden d\u00f6nmeden \u00f6nce 3.000 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme ve sonras\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosundan bahsetti. Piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmelerini de\u011ferlendirirken son d\u00fczeltmeyi 1987\u2019nin \u201cKara Cuma\u201ds\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; daha sonra uzun vadeli grafiklerde neredeyse g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez hale gelen %36\u2019l\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe dikkat \u00e7ekti ve 2008 krizinin \u00f6ncesindeki ko\u015fullarla benzerlik kurdu.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n, mevcut seviyelerden nihayetinde fiyatlar\u0131 10 kat\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek tarihi ve \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 bir bo\u011fa ko\u015fusuna girdi\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Son piyasa d\u00fczeltmelerinin tam dip noktas\u0131n\u0131 zamanlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak beyhude bir \u00e7abad\u0131r; ancak uzun vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc patika nettir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri olarak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6tesine bakmal\u0131 ve bu devasa yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6re pozisyon almal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (World Gold Council) son verileri, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda y\u0131lda 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu e\u011filim, varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n taban seviyesini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca 2024 ve 2025\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF) kal\u0131c\u0131 pozitif para giri\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal destek, k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeleri y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in son derece cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131kla pozisyondan sars\u0131lmadan bu uzun dalgay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) veya LEAPS\u2019leri kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) de bu i\u015flemlerin maliyetini y\u00f6netmeye ve ani, ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Vade tarihlerini aylar hatta y\u0131llar sonras\u0131na odaklayarak, bu makro dalgan\u0131n potansiyelini sonuna kadar de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
2007\u2019de \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesi ortama geri bakarsak, alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 dolardan 2011\u2019de 1.900 dolar civar\u0131ndaki zirveye t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu da b\u00f6ylesi defansif y\u00f6nelimlerin ne kadar \u201cpatlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 1987\u2019deki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck piyasa sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 gibi, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat konsolidasyonlar\u0131 da y\u0131llar sonra uzun vadeli grafikte muhtemelen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, zor se\u00e7ilen noktalar gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnecek. Mevcut fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ender bir \u201cikinci \u015fans\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda bomba tahmin: Electrum CIO\u2019su Thomas Kaplan, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cuzun dalga\u201d bo\u011fada 30-40 bin dolar\u0131, hatta 10 kat art\u0131\u015fla 50 bin dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini savunuyor; d\u00fczeltmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t