Meksika pesosu, piyasalar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyonu daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileriyle ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD hamleleriyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. USD\/MXN paritesi %0,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 16,96 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Meksika\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyon a\u011fustosun ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %3,1\u2019den %3,26\u2019ya y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,95\u2019ten %3,94\u2019e geriledi. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %-0,3 daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %1,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; %1,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 MXN\u2019ye verilen deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u201cEmsalsiz\u201d olarak nitelenen tedbirlerin; dijital varl\u0131klar, teknoloji, alt\u0131n, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Operation Outcast kapsam\u0131nda, arac\u0131 a\u011flar ve g\u00f6lge filo gemileri dahil yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 kurulu\u015f yapt\u0131r\u0131m listesine al\u0131nd\u0131; ilan edilen hedef, IRGC\u2019ye (Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131) giden finansman\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamak. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD\u2019nin baz\u0131 Kanada mallar\u0131na %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan Meksika Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Claudia Sheinbaum, Washington ile bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde USD\/MXN 16,9564 seviyesinde ve 17,3341 civar\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli SMA k\u00fcmelenmesi ile 17,3653\u2019teki k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trend \u00e7izgisi taraf\u0131ndan bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. RSI 31,55 seviyesinde ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden kademeli olarak uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 17,33 ve 17,37 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, daha uzun vadeli destek 15,51 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/MXN paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik son ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, Meksika\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,26\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakarak k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Tarihsel olarak peso gibi geli\u015fen piyasa para birimleri, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada defansif opsiyon stratejilerini daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin Kanada mallar\u0131na %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015facak ticaret etkilerini de yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; bu durum, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki tarife anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131nda, peso i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli ima edilen volatilitenin %15\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer bir desenin yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ikili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde olas\u0131 ani bir bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta USD\/MXN, 17,33 civar\u0131ndaki kritik basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da bug\u00fcnk\u00fc 16,96\u2019ya geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen pesonun genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn tamamen bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 17,37 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamazsa, prim toplamak i\u00e7in iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bununla birlikte, yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 konu\u015fmalar\u0131ndan gelebilecek \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizler pariteyi h\u0131zla daha derindeki yap\u0131sal destek seviyelerini test etmeye itebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Peso\u2019da bask\u0131 art\u0131yor: G\u00fc\u00e7lenen enflasyon, beklenti alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0130ran\u2019a yeni ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla USD\/MXN 16,96\u2019ya t\u0131rmand\u0131. 17,33-17,37 diren\u00e7; opsiyonlarda volatilite ve defansif stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t